QCP Capital: Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut are heating up, with only one rate cut at the beginning of the year and now up to four
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On March 12, QCP Capital released a market analysis today, pointing out that global trade tensions have escalated and market sentiment is under pressure. A new round of tariffs may be implemented on April 2. The 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that come into effect today have triggered a counter-attack from the EU, which plans to implement 26 billion euros (£22 billion) tariffs from April.
Market volatility intensifies:
The VIX index soared to 28 and then fell back to 26.6, with the Cboe VIX futures curve entering an inverted state, suggesting that the market may be close to the bottom.
Tonight's CPI data may determine market interest rate expectations. The current market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate cuts from one to four times in 2024, but the unexpected upward trend of CPI in January has caused the market to have doubts about the slowdown in inflation, and investors are cautious.
Crypto market trends:
The SEC has postponed approval of XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE ETFs until May, and will hold a roundtable meeting on cryptocurrency regulation on March 21 to discuss the classification of cryptocurrency assets and the regulatory framework.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $154 million, with GBTC selling 641 BTC in a single day (valued at $56.45 million), indicating that institutional investors’ caution is heating up.
The market will closely monitor whether the CPI data confirms the slowdown in inflation, while progress in ETF approval and results of regulatory meetings may also affect the short-term trend of the crypto market.