Written by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Since Trump signed the executive order for crypto reserves on March 7, causing BTC to fall below the $90,000 mark, the crypto market has continued this recession. This morning, BTC fell below the $80,000 mark. As of press time, BTC was at $79,110.37, down 3.9% intraday.

So, what made BTC go down the road? Is this round of crypto bull market over?

1. US stocks fell and collapsed, and the crypto market

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively again, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.08%, the Nasdaq fell 4%, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, large technology stocks fell generally, Tesla fell more than 15%, Nvidia fell more than 5%, Apple, Meta, Google fell more than 4%, and Microsoft fell more than 3%.

The decline of US cryptocurrency stocks continued to expand, falling by more than 10% across the board, including: MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 13.56%; Coinbase (COIN) fell 12.04%; Tesla (TSLA) fell 12.17%; MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 12.42%; Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 8.48%; Robinhood Markets, Inc. (1HOOD.MI) fell 10.29%; Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) fell 12.31%.

In addition, the Japanese and Korean stock markets opened sharply lower as the decline in the US stock market. The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.1%, while the South Korean KOSPI index opened down 2.1%.

Citi lowered the U.S. stock rating from overweight to neutral, and at the same time raised the stock rating to overweight, saying that the U.S. exceptionalism has been suspended at least. A report by Citi strategists such as Dirk Willer shows that the disruption to the U.S. exceptionalism has become more obvious now; the company has been increasing its holdings in U.S. stocks since October 2023. Citi expects U.S. growth to be lower than other parts of the world, but U.S. stocks may return to outperform when AI narratives dominate again. Citi said that given the strength of the technology industry, its support for the industry and its low valuation, the stock market still seems quite attractive even after the stock market surges; "DeepSeek proves that technology is at the forefront of Western technology, and even surpasses Western technology."

At present, more and more investors on Wall Street are disappointed with Tesla. UBS and Redburn Atlantic reiterated their sell ratings for Tesla as Model Y's delivery forecasts were sluggish and a lack of growth catalysts in the near future. UBS cut Tesla's target price by $24 to $225, while Redburn is even more pessimistic, with a target price of $160. Redbu“We expect sales will stagnate this year without the upcoming new cars,” wrote rn analyst Adrian Yanoshik. “So far, the sluggish new car registration data could mark an ongoing demand challenge. Meanwhile, we expect cash flow to be affected by the new Model Y models that began delivering in March due to increased inventory. The U.S. may impose tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, adding to the cost burden.” Tesla has fallen by more than 40% this year so far. If the trend fails to reverse, the stock could fall for the eighth straight week after a big rally triggered by the U.S. election, the company's longest (weekly) streak in 15 years.

Since Musk joined Trump as DOGE "Minister", Tesla's stock price has been falling every week. DOGE is conducting a broad and controversial action aimed at reducing federal spending and employee numbers. Tesla's market value has now been "halved" from its peak, equivalent to a loss of nearly US$800 billion. Forbes data shows that Musk's net worth shrank by $22.8 billion on Monday, but still leads Bezos, who ranks second in the rich list, more than $100 billion. Musk also said that the DOGE team currently has more than 100 people, which may increase to 200 people.

The current trading style of the US stock market is undergoing drastic changes. Under the dual pressures of U.S. trade uncertainty and recession expectations, U.S. stock investors are turning to a defensive strategy: selling tech stocks and buying high-dividend dividend stocks.

2. Tariff stick heightens economic concerns

The escalating tariff war tensions have sparked concerns about the economy, offsetting U.S. President Trump's statement in support of cryptocurrency issued last week. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies are under pressure over concerns that Trump's tariffs and sacks will undermine U.S. economic growth. U.S. stocks slumped and U.S. Treasury bonds rose as investors sought hedge. "While Trump's statement on the strategic reserves of cryptocurrency initially promoted optimism, as macroeconomic conditions worsened and the market showed aggressive selling, the rebound quickly collapsed."

The German Economic Weekly website published an article titled "Trump may trigger a new European debt crisis." The article believes that all signs indicate that the new US is taking Europe, especially Germany, as its next target for its trade war. European policymakers should be prepared for the trade war. The United States has recently threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imported products from the EU. However, the United States should probably consider the economic difficulties of the continent: Germany's economy is in a downturn, while Italy and France are working to solve the more serious public debt problems. Perhaps by then, the United States will realize that tariffs — as part of the “America First” agenda — could trigger a recession in Europe and a eurozone debt crisis.

Trump's tariff stick on Canada and Mexico will be implemented in a reciprocal way from April 2, as timeTariffs may rise over time.

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi believes that the US economy may fall into stagflation. Recent data reflect that American consumers and business communities are already worried about the economic outlook and reduce spending. The relevant effects will lead to a significant slowdown in the economy, and the tariff effect will lead to high inflation, so the US economy may fall into stagflation. If true, it will be the first time the United States has fallen into stagflation in 50 years. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows that the U.S. economy may shrink by 2.8% in the first quarter. If true, it will be the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. Faced with stagflation, the Fed may raise interest rates, just like former Fed Chairman Volker launched a massive rate hike in the early 1980s, sacrificing the economy to curb inflation.

3. Trump's "King of Encryption" has lost its halo.

The market has been advancing rapidly since Trump attended the Bitcoin Conference in July last year and made a series of bold words to the crypto industry. Trump and his wife's behavior of issuing Meme coins has a negative impact on market credibility. The executive order for the US cryptocurrency strategic reserves signed by Trump on the 7th was also within the market's expectations. Therefore, after the executive order was signed, the market situation fell instead. With the convening of the White House Cryptocurrency Summit, Trump has not launched a tangible positive crypto market. At this point, the market seems to be completely disappointed with Trump.

B2C2 director Nikolay Karpenko wrote that while Trump's statement on cryptocurrency strategic reserves initially promoted optimism, the rally quickly collapsed due to a massive sell-off caused by a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. Solana, Cardano, and XRP fell. Trump once mentioned that these three tokens would be listed as cryptocurrency reserves, but the final executive order did not mention it.

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown said in the report that the biggest problem facing the market is Trump's "change as often as the wind direction." Trump's capriciousness on tariff issues has prevented market participants from pricing risks and accurately predicting future paths. He said, "No one is willing to touch dollar assets now."

4. Industry insiders' opinions:

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a statement saying, "The plan is as follows: be patient and don't worry.

Bitcoin may bottom out at around $70,000, and falling 36% from the all-time high of $110,000 is a normal bull market pullback.

Then we need to see the stock market, especially the SPX (S&P 500) and NDX (Nasdaq 100) fall sharply. Then, the "newbies" in traditional financial markets will be in trouble.

Then, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Central Bank (PBOC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will take easing one after another. , try to revive the country's economy.

At this time, you can do your best. Traders will try to buy in the decline, if you prefer to ruleTo avoid risks, wait until the central bank starts to relax before investing more funds. You may not be able to buy accurately at the bottom, but you will not suffer from long-term sideways and potential unrealized losses. ”

YouHodler Marketing Director Ruslan Lienkha said he claimed the market is undergoing adjustments and may evolve into a medium-term bearish trend. Lienkha: “Uncertainty is reaching a local peak, prompting traders to temporarily close their positions. Typically, bond markets, especially U.S. Treasury bonds, are safe havens for investors during a period of intensifying recession expectations. ”

Lienkha expressed doubts when asked about the feasibility of Bitcoin as a safe haven in the current market environment. He said: “At present, Bitcoin is definitely not a safe haven when the stock market falls. Instead, it performs more like a high-risk tech stock with high volatility and high price volatility. While high volatility may lead to short-term divergences, Bitcoin’s mid-term performance may be consistent with overall stock market trends. ”

Analytical agency Kobeissi said that the U.S. Department of Efficiency (DOGE) cuts spending as one of the causes of the recession, and they believe that U.S. spending and employment growth have been ‘driven’ the economy, but DOGE’s cost cuts will have far-reaching impacts, and it is unclear where the BTC price movement may form a more reliable bottom.

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of cryptocurrency exchange BTSE, said, “Bitcoin is likely to fall to the $70,000 to $80,000 in the coming weeks.” Only when the tariff war is over and the Fed resumes interest rate cuts will the major cryptocurrencies return to their previous highest point”.