Source: Bitu

After several days of thrilling shocks, risky assets ushered in a reversal overnight.

Bitou data shows that in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from the lowest point of the day of $81,500 to more than $88,000, an intraday increase of nearly 10%. At the same time, the decline of the three major stock indexes narrowed, and the Nasdaq closed down to 0.35%.

The "tug-of-war" between market sentiment and the macro economy

Recent market conditions are in a stalemate. After Bitcoin rebounded from the low of $78,000 on February 21 to $95,000, then fell back to around $81,000. The strength of bulls and bears was tug-of-war, and the market direction was unclear. Although Trump's "pro-crypto" statement once boosted market confidence, its impact was short-lived and failed to reverse the overall market weakness. The potential macroeconomic risks are still the "Sword of Damocles" hanging above the market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin market may continue to hover in a downturn until the sentiment in the US market has substantial improvement. Under the influence of multiple factors such as unclear supervision, complex and changeable macroeconomic environment, and continuous fluctuations in investor sentiment, it is still unknown whether Bitcoin can maintain a high level for a long time. Before a stronger market catalyst appears, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate and consolidate within a wide range, and investors need to pay close attention to market trends and capture key signals.

After the US$90,000 mark falls, the bulls face severe challenges

Although the market has tried to rebound many times, the Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are still under pressure and have failed to effectively establish a sustained upward trend. Many analysts have issued warnings that if the bulls want to reverse the decline, they must take action as soon as possible to regain the key points, otherwise Bitcoin may face the risk of further decline.

However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be too early to assert that the bull market cycle has ended. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that on-chain activities are still relatively flat and key indicators are also neutral, indicating that despite the recent weak market performance, the overall bull market pattern may not have been damaged. In addition, the fundamentals of Bitcoin are still stable, and more mining machines continue to be launched, which also reflects that major market participants are still confident in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.

Ju further pointed out that if this bull market cycle ends, this may not be a happy outcome for major market stakeholders, including early entry of "big whale" investors, large mining companies, traditional financial institutions, and US President Trump, who publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. Retail investors are usually considered entrants in the late stage of the bull market cycle, and their market behavior may not be enough to dominate the market trend at the current stage.

USD 85,000 is a key liquidity test, and the historical cycle may repeat itself?

TradingView analysts believe that the more critical support level for BTC in the short term is still $85,000, a level that plays a crucial role in the market game in recent weeks.

If Bitcoin continues to operate below $85,000 in the next few days, it may trigger a larger market sell-off. The concentrated release of selling pressure may lead to an accelerated decline in the currency price and further confirm the bearish momentum in the market. At that time, Bitcoin may face the risk of testing lower support levels.

Quinten posted on the X platform saying: Looking back on history may provide us with some inspiration. In the last bull market cycle, Bitcoin experienced seven large-scale pullbacks, with the pullbacks being: -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%, and -25%. Every pullback has caused market panic, making people feel that the "bear market" has arrived. Whenever the price falls sharply, the market will always be filled with the argument that "Bitcoin is dead". However, history has proven that Bitcoin has finally succeeded in breaking through resistance and continued to climb upward. Admittedly, history will not be simply repeated, but it will often be surprisingly similar.

In summary, the two key prices of US$85,000 and US$90,000 will become the focus of competition between the long and short sides in the short term. Investors need to pay close attention to the gains and losses of these two points to judge the next direction of the market.

According to analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is very "interesting" and releases some key signals worth paying attention to:

The bottom may have been proven: Bitcoin fell sharply by 28% from the historical high of $109,000 last week, and rebounded rapidly and strongly after hitting a low of $78,300. This V-shaped reversal trend of "bottom-back" is usually regarded as a signal formed by the market's phased bottom, indicating a decrease in the possibility of further sharp declines in the short term.

Healthy pullback in the bull market: After experiencing a strong bull market rise, it is normal for the market to experience a certain correction. This pullback will help release the profit-making market accumulated in the early stage and accumulate new upward momentum for the market. Only healthy adjustments can lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.

The "gold pit" of buying on dips: The current market pullback actually provides a rare opportunity for off-market funds. If we missed the previous market for Bitcoin to rise rapidly from $85,000 to $95,000, then now may be a good opportunity to make a relatively low-level layout. There will never be a shortage of opportunities in the market, and the pullback is an important "accumulation stage" in the bull market cycle.

The long-term bull market trend has not changed: Bitcoin’s long-term upward growth trend has not fundamentally changed. Judging from historical rules, Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trend in the next few months and gradually fluctuate upward. According to previous analysts' predictions, Bitcoin still has potential next monthIt will hit the target price of $120,000.

Technical indicators provide support: Judging from the Bitcoin daily chart, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is playing a key supporting role, and MA200 has long been regarded as one of the most important technical indicators for judging the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies. The current Bitcoin price trend is forming higher lows, indicating that the bullish trend may be further confirmed.

Market sentiment and capital accumulation: This cycle is not simply driven by the United States or geopolitical events, but is also reflected in the market's own cyclical laws. Bitcoin is ready to enter a new growth phase and is expected to hit another high in 2025. In addition, there are still a large amount of funds outside the market waiting for an opportunity to move. Once the market stabilizes and rebounds, these funds are expected to accelerate entry, further boosting the market.

In summary, Bitcoin may have proven its phased bottom, and the market is entering the "accumulation stage" of volatile momentum. Although short-term market volatility is inevitable, the long-term bull market trend is still stable. Investors can seize the current pullback opportunity, arrange batches at relatively low levels, hold patiently, and wait for the market to finally choose the direction.