Author: ignasdefi Translation: Shan Oppa, Golden Finance

Last cycle, when ETH fell 50% (from $4,300 to $2,150, about June 2021), I sold all my holdings.

I was exhausted from the bull market, researching and working continuously without any rest. Mental exhaustion, I hope it stops. When my portfolio fell 50%, I think that marks the beginning of a bear market. I sold it and felt relieved.

ETH then corrected and rose 125% to $4,800. I missed it, but at least I got a good return on stablecoins.

I think we are at a similar stage now, but this time I feel much more mentally strong. So I hold my bargaining chips firmly and wait for recovery.

But what if I'm wrong, is this actually a bear market?

Fear dominates sentiment: Trump's tariffs, stocks at historical highs may plummet, and cryptocurrencies will also fall. Then you read that Warren Buffett holds a lot of cash (maybe he knows something you don't know, you want). The smart guy on X posted bad news, claiming that it was the end.

In view of this, I refuse to be overwhelmed by FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and hope to share market charts and insights for reference.

Is BTC still in a bull market?

The following dashboard is from CryptoQuant, which determines whether Bitcoin’s price is overvalued (expensive) or undervalued (cheap).

MVRV Z-Score

It shows when Bitcoin is overvalued (red area) or undervalued (green area) based on historical trends.

Bitcoin is not in the overvalued area, but is far higherat an underestimated level.

There is still room for upward, but we are in the middle of the cycle, not early stages.

NUPL (Net unrealized profit/loss)

NUPL Measure whether the market is in a state of fear, optimism or fanatic based on unrealized profits.

is currently in the optimistic/denial phase (approximately 0.48), which means that most holders are in a profitable state.

Historically, greed/fanity (above 0.6) marks the top of the market.

Long-term holders SOPR (spended output margin)

SOPR tracks whether long-term holders sell for profit or loss. Values ​​above 1 indicate profit-taking.

is currently 1.5, meaning long-term holders are taking profits, but not radical.

In a healthy upward trend, it is normal to continue selling above 1.

CryptoQuant Profit and Loss Index

This index combines MVRV, NUPL and SOPR to evaluate overall market valuation.

above its 365-day moving average, confirming the continued bull market.

Spikes above 1.0 indicate risks of formation at the top of the cycle.

Summary: What is the next step?

Bitcoin is in the middle of a bull cycle.

Holders are taking profits, but there is no extreme fanaticism yet.

The price may still rise until it is overvalued.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin still has room for upside before reaching the top of the main cycle. Interestingly, the chart CZ shared on X is exactly how I feel about our next move:

Bitcoin has been confirmed as a bull market, but we have not yet reached the level of fanaticism seen at the top of the past cycle. On-chain data shows that there is still room for upside, but some profit-taking is happening.

Ethereum

ETH has fallen 70% compared to BTC in the past two years. It has been down 48% since December 2024 alone! The outflow of ETH ETFs also showed no signs of bullishness.

But is ETH the best risk/reward opportunity in cryptocurrencies now? I shared on X that the ETH catalyst is slowly forming:

Leading changes at the Ethereum Foundation (EF) (Aya leaves, but the new executive director is to be determined)

Decides to expand L1, starting with gas restrictions, but the shift in mindset itself is important.

Pectra brings EIP-7702 (goodbye approval) and EF’s new open intention framework to improve the L2 user experience.

Tired of meme coins, the community is expected to turn to fundamentals.

The hype of MegaETH shows that 1) people still like innovative L2, 2) successful L2 validates modular theory.

Base just announced the reduction of block time from 2 seconds to 200 milliseconds and L3 (similar to the theory of MegaETH). Although I don't like Base very much.

Ethereum is the best chain for asset tokenization. BlackRock promotes it vigorously.

ETH fell a lot.

The problem is these changesTake time: L1 expansion takes years, and user experience improvement requires multiple partners to adapt (Base obviously lacks an open intention framework).

My biggest concern is that ETH will completely miss this bull market and will only be a good buying opportunity in the next bear market.

However, emotions may change rapidly. If EF and the broader community see 1) expanding L1, 2) improving L2 modular user experience, 3) real signs of changing the mentality of Ethereum losers, then ETH could rebound and dominate the latter half of the cycle.

Soon is currently 3.8 times lower in market capitalization, providing an excellent user experience and benefiting from the growing Lindy effect (as long as it stays online). These factors will challenge ETH's dominance in the smart contract field.

Altcoin: What to consider?

The robust speculative index measures whether an altcoin is better than Bitcoin in multiple time frames.

is currently at a low level (approximately 0.0-0.2), which means BTC is better than most altcoins.

Historically, the rise in altcoins occurred after periods of low speculation.

This is similar to the Crypto Breadth chart shared by Aylo on X, which shows that the altcoins have bottomed out and we can expect a rebound (if BTC remains the same).

The question is: What altcoins should I buy? I have several standards:

No large number of unlocks in the short term.

Product PMF (product market fit).

Revenue sharing (token repurchase) is a great advantage.

I'm most optimistic about it is FLUID. This lending protocol with only a few months history has continuously challenged Uniswap in terms of DEX transaction volume. FLUID has announced an upcoming repo plan.

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Other good-looking altcoins:

ENA: Survived by the Bybit hacking and multiple liquidation waves. The latest round of financing was $100 million at a price of $0.40…I'm very optimistic about the increasing number of protocols/CEX implementing sUSDe. Question? Lots of ENA unlocked.

$SKY (formerly $MKR): Taiki’s post is great.

• Repurchase $30 million per month (about 1.9% of supply) • USDS (formerly known as DAI) supply is close to an all-time high • SPK mining = more demand and revenue • Stablecoin regulation may bring a tailwind

$KMNO: Dominates the SOL lending market with $1.8 billion TVL, while MC is only $85 million. Problem? Solana chain users are traders, not earning farmers. But this can change at any time.

Sonic's $S: an evolving DeFi ecosystem (Aave and other key protocols are being deployed), 200 million S airdrops, a good user experience, a growing share of mind on X, no big unlocking space...

HYPE: There are a lot of discussions on X about great token economics and strong communities

PENDLE: Pendle is the best choice when fundamentals are important and investors seek returns

AAVE: With Aave 3.3 Upgrades and strong revenues are experiencing changes in the token economy.

What else am I missing?

In addition, I am about the coming soonThe MegaETH, Monad, Farcaster, Eclipse, Initia, Linea and Polymarket token airdrops are excited.

Macro, macro, macro

I sincerely believe in the story of Bitcoin as digital gold. I prefer Bitcoin over gold due to its self-custodial and transferability properties.

The current macro environment is the best test site for Bitcoin. Tariffs, wars, fiscal deficits, currency printing... everything is available.

In my 2025 cryptocurrency truth and lies blog post, I share BlackRock’s research that bitcoin sometimes sells out at the beginning of a large macro event. However, the potential of chaos, turmoil, currency printing is good for BTC.

I believe this is exactly what is happening now. Trump's sudden decision to deviate from the established world order has caused panic in the market. However, people will soon adapt to these new global realities.

Nothing in the world that really changes will ruin cryptocurrencies. In fact, the opposite is true. Day after day, we see the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) taking bullish actions – revoking lawsuits, introducing new cryptocurrency bills, and an overall positive stance on cryptocurrencies.

But Ansem's point is right, and when good news can't drive prices up, that's bearish. The market will take some time to adjust.

However, I hope the market can correct itself faster than his bullish forecast for 2026/27. If Raoul Pal’s charts and insights are correct, then BTC prices should catch up with global M2 supply faster than in 2026.

I am still bullish and I believe patience will pay off.