Jessy (@susanliu33), Golden Finance

Today, Bitcoin fell below 80,000 US dollars, and the cryptocurrency fear and greed index also reached 10 yesterday (extreme fear). This is a 3-month time when investors see Bitcoin starting with 7.

The market sentiment is extremely scary for 4 days. In less than a week, Bitcoin fell from 96,000 to around 78,000. And it also fell 28% from its historical high. Ethereum also fell 25% in less than a week.

More than just the decline in the currency circle, global stock markets generally fell today. The author believes that the core reason for this decline is that Trump further imposed tariffs, which has led to further pessimism about macroeconomic expectations. As investors' psychological defenses are further defeated, the crypto market has also ushered in a continuous decline.

The market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and the good news has also failed.

The reasons for this decline can be summarized, but it is mainly some negative news at the macroeconomic level, and Trump's further strong statement on tariffs. It basically defeated market sentiment and caused a large number of investors to sell in panic.

Trump said on February 27 that he would impose a 10% tariff on imported goods from March 4. Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on February 4, and the total tariffs have reached 20%. The proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were originally scheduled to take effect on March 4, will also take effect as scheduled.

It is precisely because of Trump's toughness on tariff issues and extreme instability that the stable and normal development of global trade has been greatly threatened. The start of a trade war will greatly drag down the development of the global economy. After Trump's tariff remarks were released, global stock markets generally performed poorly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which had fallen for four consecutive trading days, only closed slightly higher. In the European stock market, the automobile sector was significantly impacted, down about 4%, as investors feared that the economies of major EU economies, especially Germany and France, would suffer huge losses due to the U.S. tariff shift. Asia's emerging markets have also suffered a heavy blow, with Thailand's benchmark stock index falling by as much as 2.4%, a cumulative decline of more than 20% from its October high. Most A-share stocks are also in a downward state, and the so-called "rise from east to west" law has also failed. Safe-haven gold also fell slightly.

The current market sentiment is basically very bad. On the 27th, Nvidia's financial report actually delivered a pretty good answer. With such good news, neither the crypto market nor the US stock market made any gratifying reactions to the rise. This also shows that the current market has already been very pessimistic and all data will be interpreted in a negative direction. It also indicates that any disturbances in the market will bringA new round of decline.

On the evening of the 28th, the United States will release PCE data. Under the current market sentiment, even if the PCE data is better than expected, it will not actually bring about a rebound in the currency price that is too positive.

Is it the end? Where will the market go next?

An important basis for measuring where the bottom is is the price of Bitcoin’s shutdown coin. At present, taking the S21 series and S19 series, which are currently the mainstream Bitcoin mining, the former shutdown coin price is around US$30,000, while the latter is around US$50,000. According to Yuchi data, although the current price of Bitcoin has reached the shutdown price of most mining machines. However, there is still a lot of room for decline before the shutdown price of the latest mainstream mining machines.

According to the analysis of market panic, market panic has been in a state of extreme fear for four consecutive days. Most people in the market are already looking at bears. Under such market sentiment, the present is definitely not the best time to sell chips.

From a technical point of view, you can pay attention to the EMA200 (200-day exponential moving average on the K-line chart), which is often regarded as an important long-term trend indicator. When the price is above the EMA200, it may be considered a long-term uptrend; when the price is below the EMA200, it may be considered a long-term downtrend. The price of Bitcoin corresponding to this line is US$73,000. From a technical perspective, when Bitcoin effectively falls below $73,000, it can be announced that Bitcoin has entered a bear market.

At present, the macro is undoubtedly the biggest uncertainty factor affecting the currency price. Although the United States has been continuously promoting various positive factors for the development of crypto-compliance, it is precisely because of the waving of Trump's tariff stick that investors are generally pessimistic about macro expectations. However, it is worth noting that institutions generally maintain expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. Only by loosening money can the market inject liquidity. And when the market really gets better, it really has to wait until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

What investors are most concerned about now is where the price of Bitcoin will fall. The bottom is unpredictable, the market is changing rapidly, and what can be controlled is investment operations. For investors, after Bitcoin falls below 73,000 US dollars, they can buy at the bottom in batches or invest in fixed investment, and then wait for the next round of rising market to sell in batches.