Author: NingNing

Bitcoin’s blood-sucking market is in a self-reinforcing stage. Before, it was just a blood-sucking altcoin. In the past two days, MeMe coins have started to drain on the chain.

After observing this morning, the market sentiment on Twitter has become very bad, and the voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism are very loud.

Many traders and OGs who are respected by everyone even lamented that "the season of copycats is over."

Judging from the historical data presented in Dune’s Alts Buy Signal chart, there are 4 patterns between BTC and altcoins:

Mode 1: BTC rises and altcoins rise

In this model, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, BTC. D (BTC market capitalization share) may fluctuate or decline. This is the bull market boom period.

This is the time to go long. If altcoins move stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. On the contrary, caution is required.

Mode 2: BTC falls and altcoins fall

In this model, both BTC and altcoins fall In a downward trend.

This is the time to de-risk and buy more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is recommended to wait for the trend to reverse. For long term holders, DCA or Buy the dip is recommended.

Mode 3: BTC falls and altcoins rise

This pattern rarely appears. When BTC is choppy and not experiencing an aggressive decline, this could be a short-term alt season. Consider increasing risk exposure.

Mode 4: BTC rises and altcoins fall

BTC outperforms the market in an uptrend, and BTC.D continues to reach new highs. This pattern usually occurs before halving, or at the beginning of a bull market.

At this stage, it is recommended to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins and wait for the explosion.

The above is the historical law summarized by @cryptokoryo.

It seems that we are in a state of mode now, but we have to admit that the duration and extent of this decoupling between BTC and altcoins far exceed historical cases.

In addition, after the passage of the BTC spot ETF, the market is worried that it will change the mode of allocating funds to crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest transaction in the US stock market yesterday, which seems to verify that this worry is becoming a fact, making the copycat season Skepticism is more convincing.

But as an eternal crypto-optimist, I can still see "disruptive innovation" in rapid iteration in the fields of chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, Bitcoin ecology, etc. , in the field of MeMe currency and consumer chain, I can feel the pushback of "exponential growth". Talking about the "end of history" of altcoins at this time is an irrational emotional catharsis in my eyes. If such a market makes you feel anxious and hesitant, you might as well take a moment to observe the altcoin projects at work:

Chain abstract infra@ParticleNtwrk

Chain abstract fat application @infinex_app

New paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia

Bitcoin ecological idealist: @NervosNetwork

Bitcoin L2 endorsed by the world’s largest Bitcoin mining company: @build_on_bob

Working with Ai16z to develop a platform for equal rights in Ai Agent asset issuance technology: @vvaifudotfun

Successfully gained followers on Tiktok 1M ofSolana L2:@SonicSVM

Security lasts forever. A calm mind is the best medicine for us to stay calm in the stormy waters of trading.

Above.