On February 27, CryptoQuant CEO Ki YoungJu posted on social media that Bitcoin on-chain indicators show that it is currently at the critical point of a bull market and a bear market. I expected this to be the longest bull market in history, but I could be wrong as well. We need to wait for at least another month of data to confirm whether we enter a bear market. If demand does not recover, the indicator may fully display a downward trend. According to typical cycles, the bull market should last until April 2025 – I mentioned this in May 2024. The next month or two will be a key turning point in the Bitcoin market. If each indicator confirms the downward trend, I will admit that I was wrong and post the relevant content. But as I said before, I think the probability of Bitcoin falling below $77,000 is low. Even in the worst case, I think Bitcoin will be consolidating for a few months around $77,000 before rebounding. I think it is not a good choice to make heavy positions in leverage directional betting now - whether it is long or short.