Author: 0xTodd Source: Dollars are excited!

There is no doubt that the hero of 40K-70K is Bitcoin ETF, and the hero of 70K-100K is undoubtedly MicroStrategy.

Many people now compare MicroStrategy to the BTC version of Luna, which makes me a little embarrassed, because Bitcoin is my favorite cryptocurrency, and Luna happens to be My most hated cryptocurrency.

I hope this post can help everyone better understand the relationship between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

First of all, a few conclusions at the beginning:

Microstrategy is not Luna; The safety pad is much thicker.

Wei Strategy increased its holdings of Bitcoin through bonds and stock sales.

Microstrategy's latest debt repayment date is in 2027, which is more than 2 years away.

Weice’s only soft threat is the Bitcoin whale.

Weize is not Luna, it is much thicker than Luna safety cushion

MSTR Net Worth vs Bitcoin price

Weice was originally a software company. It had a lot of floating profits on its account and didn’t want to put it into production anymore, so I started to turn away from reality and started to buy Bitcoin with my own money in 20 years.

Later, Wei Ce bought all the money in his account and started to use leverage. The way it adds leverage is over-the-counter leverage, and it is determined to borrow money to buy Bitcoin by issuing corporate bonds.

The essential difference between it and Luna is that Luna and UST print each other, and essentially UST is meaningless money printing without an anchor, relying on 20% fake interest to survive.

But micro strategy is equivalent to bottom fixed investment + leverage, which is the standard borrowing money to go long, and it is betting in the right direction.

Bitcoin’s popularity far exceeds that of UST, and the impact of micro-policy on Bitcoin is significantly lower than Luna’s impact on UST. It's a very simple reason. As the saying goes, 2% daily growth is Ponzi, and 2% annual growth is a bank. Quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes. Micro-strategy is not the only factor that determines Bitcoin, so micro-policy is by no means Luna.

WeChat increased its holdings of Bitcoin through bonds and stock sales

In order to quickly raise funds, MicroStrategy has issued multiple debts, totaling US$5.7 billion ( For everyone's intuitive understanding, this is equivalent to 1/15 of Microsoft's debt).

Almost all of this money is used to continuously increase positions in Bitcoin.

Everyone has used on-site leverage. You have to use Bitcoin as a deposit before the exchange (and other users on the exchange) will lend you money. But off-market leverage is different.

All creditors in the world only worry about one thing, which is not paying back their debts. There is no collateral, so why are people willing to lend money to Weace off-site?

Weize's debt issuance is very interesting. In recent years, it has issued a type of debt that is convertible into shares.

This convertible bond is very interesting, let’s give an example:

Bond holdings People have the right to convert their bonds into MSTR shares, which are divided into two stages:

1. Initial stage:

If the bond’s trading price falls >2%, creditors can exercise their rights and convert the bond into MSTR Shares and sell back the principal;

If the trading price of the bond is normal or even rises, the creditor can resell the bond in the secondary market at any time to return the principal.

2. Later stage: When the bond is about to mature, the 2% rule does not apply, and the bondholder can take back the cash and walk away, or directlyBonds are converted into MSTR shares.

Let's analyze it again. This is generally a business that is sure to make money without losing money for creditors.

If Bitcoin falls and MSTR has money, creditors can get their cash

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If Bitcoin falls and MSTR has no money, creditors can still have a final guarantee, that is, they can exchange for stocks and realize their capital back;

If Bitcoin rises, MSTR It will rise, and creditors can get more stock returns for giving up cash.

In a word, this is a transaction with a high lower limit and a high upper limit. Naturally, Weice successfully raised the money.

Fortunately, no, I should say very loyally, Wei Ce chose Bitcoin.

Bitcoin lives up to it.

2024 MicroStrategy stock price trend

< p style="text-align: left;">As Bitcoin continues to grow, the Bitcoin accumulated by Wei Ce in the early days has risen sharply. According to the simple and classic stock principle, the more assets a company has, the higher its market value should be.

Therefore, the stock price of Micro Strategy has also skyrocketed.

Microstrategy's current daily trading volume has exceeded this year's absolute white horse NVIDIA. As a result, Wei Ce now has more choices.

Now MicroStrategy not only relies on issuing bonds, but can also directly issue additional stocks and sell them in exchange for money.

Unlike many meme coins or Bitcoin developers who do not have permission to mint coins, traditional companies can issue additional shares after complying with relevant procedures.

The fact that Bitcoin was able to go from early 80K to 98K last week was inseparable from the help of Micro Policy. That’s right, Weize issued additional shares and sold them for 4.6 billionUS dollars.

PS: Companies whose trading volume exceeds NVIDIA are naturally equipped with this flow.

Sometimes, when you admire a company for making great profits, you need to admire its great courage.

Different from the small pattern of many companies in the currency circle that sell and withdraw money, MicroStrategy has a full pattern as usual. Microstrategy reinvested all the money gained from selling stocks into Bitcoin, pushing Bitcoin to 98K.

By now, you should have understood Wei Ce’s magic:

Buy Bitcoin → Stock price rises → Raise debt to buy more Bitcoins → Bitcoin rises → Stock prices rise further → Raise more debt → Buy more Bitcoins → Stock prices continue to rise → Issue additional shares and sell them for money → Buy more Bitcoins → Stock price Keep rising...

Presented by the great magician Wei Ce.

Weici’s latest debt repayment date is in 2027, and we have at least 3 years left

As long as you are a magician, you will have time to expose the magic.

Many MSTR bears believe it has now reached the left side of the standard and even suspect it has reached a Luna moment.

However, is this really the case?

According to recent statistics, the average cost of Bitcoin on Weibo is 49,874 US dollars, which means that it is now close to 100% floating profit. This is a super thick safety cushion. .

Let’s assume the worst case scenario, even if Bitcoin falls by 75% (almost impossible) and drops to 25,000, so what?

Weicai uses off-site leverage and has no liquidation mechanism at all. Angry creditors, at most, turn their bonds into MSTR stocks at a specified time and then angrily hit the market.

Even if MSTR is hit to zero, it still does not need to be forced to sell these Bitcoins, because the earliest debt that needs to be repaid by Wei Ce is due. Date - unexpectedlyIn February 2027.

Look carefully, this is not 2025, nor 2026, but Tom's 2027.

In other words, if you have to wait until February 2027 and Bitcoin plummets, if no one wants MicroStrategy’s stocks anymore, then MicroStrategy needs It only sold some of its Bitcoins in February.

Everything is planned, and there are still more than 2 years to continue playing music and dancing.

This is the magic of off-market leverage.

You may ask, is it possible that Wei Ce will be forced to sell Bitcoin by interest rates?

The answer is still no.

Because of MicroStrategy's convertible bonds, creditors are generally guaranteed to make profits without losing money, so its interest rates are quite low. For example, the interest rate for this amount due in February 2027 is actually 0%.

The creditors are simply greedy for MSTR stock.

The interest rates for the subsequent debts it issued were also at 0.625% and 0.825%. Only one debt was 2.25%, and the impact was very small, so it was also There is no need to worry about the interest on it.

Weize’s main bond interest, source: bitmex

The only soft threat to MicroStrategy is the Bitcoin whale

In this current situation, MicroStrategy and Bitcoin have interacted with each other.

There are more companies ready to start learning - the great trader of Bitcoin's David Copperfield (Saylor).

For example, MARA, a listed Bitcoin mining company, has just issued a US$1 billion Bitcoin convertible bond, earmarking the funds for bargain hunting.

So I think short sellers had better proceed with caution, if morePeople begin to follow the micro-strategy, and the momentum of Bitcoin will be like a wild horse, after all, there is a vacuum above.

So, the biggest opponents of MicroStrategy now are only those ancient Bitcoin whales.

As many people predicted before, all the Bitcoins in the hands of retail investors have been handed over. After all, there are too many opportunities, such as the meme trend, I I can’t believe that everyone’s eyes are empty.

So there are only these giant whales in the field. As long as these giant whales don't move, it will be difficult to stop this momentum. If you are lucky enough, the whales and MicroStrategy will form some small tacit understanding, which will be enough to push Bitcoin into a greater future.

This is also a major difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum: Satoshi Nakamoto theoretically owns nearly 1 million Bitcoins mined in the early days, but he still has none. The Ethereum Foundation doesn’t know why, but sometimes it wants to sell 100 ETH to try out liquidity.

As of today's writing date, MicroStrategy's floating profit has reached 15 billion US dollars, relying on loyalty and faith.

Because it is making money, it will invest more, there is no turning back, and more people will follow. Based on the current momentum, 170K is Bitcoin’s mid-term target (non-financial advice).

Of course, we are used to seeing conspiracies devised by the cabal in memes every day. Once in a while, we see a truly top-notch conspiracy and we can’t help but admire it.