Original title: Trump Truth

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX; Compiler: 0xjs@金财经

Four steps: vertical wooden boards fixed on movable brackets The distance between the location and the wall. My yoga teacher taught me to place the heels of my hands where the board and support meet. I curled up like a cat, making sure the back of my head was level with the board. If the distance is right, I can move my feet up the wall behind me, turning my body into an L shape with the back of my skull, back, and sacrum touching the board. I have to fight the tendency of my ribs to flare out by engaging my abdominal muscles and tightening my tailbone. Phew - I'm already sweating just from keeping my body in the right position. But the real work hasn't begun yet. The challenge is to lift one leg to a fully vertical position while maintaining alignment.

This stick is like an antidote to bad posture. If your form is incorrect, you'll notice right away that you can feel parts of your back and butt lifting away from the stick. All my musculoskeletal issues were exposed as I lifted my left foot, with my right foot still against the wall. My left lat is everted and my left shoulder is everted, looking like an asymmetrical curling iron. But I already knew this because both my athletic trainer and chiropractor discovered that the muscles in my left back were weaker than those in my right, which caused my left shoulder to sit higher and roll forward. Doing handstands on sticks only made my imbalances more obvious. There was no quick fix to my problem, just a long road and sometimes painful practice to slowly correct my imbalance.

If the vertical plank was my body-aligned truth potion, US President-elect Donald Trump has had a similar effect on the various geopolitical and economic issues facing the world today. The reason the global elite hates Trump is because he tells the truth. The Trump truth I’m referring to is limited to a narrow range of topics. I’m not talking about whether Trump will tell you the truth about the size of his dick, his net worth, or his golf handicap. Instead, Trump Truth tells the story of the actual relationship between dissent and the opinions of ordinary American voters far removed from the safe space of the right Nazis.

As a macroeconomic forecaster, I try to make predictions based on public data and current events to guide the asset mix of my portfolio. I love The Truth About Trump because it serves as a catalyst that forces other leaders to acknowledge the problems they face and take action. It is these actions that ultimately bring about the future state of the world that Maelstrom hopes to profit from. Even before Trump returned to power, countries were behaving in the ways I predicted, further reinforcing my confidence in how to print money and implement financial repression methods. This year-end article is intended to provide a step-by-step introduction to the four major economic blocs and (the United States, the European Union "EU", and Japan). For my near-term stance, it will be important to note whether I believe money printing will continue and accelerate after Trump's coronation on January 20, 2025. That's because I think there's a lot of tension between cryptocurrency investors having high expectations for how quickly Trump can change the status quo, and Trump not having an acceptable solution to quickly bring about that change. Big gap. Markets will immediately realize that Trump has at best a year around January 20 to implement any changes. This realization will lead to a massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies and other Trump 2.0 stock trades.

Trump has a year to act, as most U.S. lawmakers will begin campaigning for the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections in late 2025. The entire House of Representatives and a large number of senators must run for re-election. Republican majorities in the House and Senate are so thin that they are likely to lose power after November 2026. The American people are rightly outraged. However, it will take even the savviest and most powerful countries more than a decade, not just a year, to resolve the underlying and international problems that negatively impact them. As a result, investors are bracing for severe buyer's remorse. But can a wall of money printing and a slew of new regulations aimed at discouraging savers overcome the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon and keep the crypto bull market alive in 2025 and beyond? I believe it can, but this article is my venting attempt to convince myself of the possibility.

I will quote Russell Napier in my very simple timeline of post-WWII monetary structures.

1944–1971 Bretton Woods System

Countries fixed their currency exchange rates to the U.S. dollar, with the U.S. dollar to gold exchange rate being $35 per ounce.

1971–1994 Petrodollar

U.S. President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard and allowed the dollar to float against all currencies because the country could not maintain it while funding greater welfare and the Vietnam War. Link to gold. He made a deal with the oil exporters of the Persian Gulf (particularly Saudi Arabia) that they would price oil in dollars, extract as much oil as required, and recirculate their trade surpluses into U.S. financial assets. If you believe some reports, the United States manipulated certain Gulf oil prices to increase as a backstop for this new monetary structure.

1994–2024 Petroyaun

A sharp devaluation of the yuan against the dollar to combat inflation, the collapse of the banking system and revive the export industry. and other Asian Tigers (such as Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, etc.) practice mercantilism and provide cheap export products to the United States, resulting in the accumulation of U.S. dollars overseas as foreign exchange reserves., thereby being able to afford energy and high-quality manufactured goods priced in dollars, and ultimately introducing more than a billion low-wage workers into the global economy, thus suppressing inflation in the developed West, allowing these central bankers to move interest rates maintained at minimal levels because they mistakenly believed that endogenous inflation had declined over the long term.

White is USD/RMB, yellow is GDP calculated in constant US dollars.

2024 — now?

I don't know the name of the system currently under development. However, Trump’s election was the catalyst that changed the global monetary system. To be clear, Trump is not the cause of the realignment; rather, he has been outspoken about the imbalances he believes must change and is willing to enact highly disruptive measures to quickly achieve what he believes will get Americans the first Benefit from changes. These changes will end the petro-yuan. Ultimately, as I argue in this article, these changes will increase the supply of global fiat currencies and financial disincentives. Both of these things must happen because no leader in the United States, the European Union, or Japan wants to de-leverage their system into a new sustainable equilibrium. Instead, they will print money and destroy the real purchasing power of long-term bonds and bank savings deposits so that the elite will continue to run the new system.

I will first outline Trump's goals and then assess how various groups may respond.

In order to function properly, the United States must maintain current and trade account surpluses in the petro-yuan system. The result was the deindustrialization and financialization of the American economy. If you want to understand how this works, I recommend reading all of Michael Pettis's works. I don’t think this is why the world should change its economic system, but since the 1970s, white American men (whom American governance is supposed to serve) have lost their place. The key word here is "Average"; I'm not talking about high-flying people like Jamie Dimon and David Solomon, the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, or the wage cheats who toil for them. I'm talking about the brother who once worked for Bethlehem Steel, had a house and a spouse, and now the only women he sees are nurses at the methadone clinic. This is obvious because this group of people in the United States are slowly killing themselves with alcohol and prescription drugs. Everything is relative, relative to the higher standard of living and job satisfaction they enjoyed after WWII, relative to the rest of the US/world things are not that good right now. We all know this is Trump's base, and he talks to them in a way that no other politician dares to do. Trump promised to bring industry back to America to give meaning to their miserable lives.

For bloodthirsty Americans who are keen on playing war video games, they are a very powerful group, and the current situation of the US military is embarrassing. U.S. military forces relative to immediate neighbors orThe myth of supremacy among peer adversaries (currently only Russia and Russia meet this criterion) begins with the idea that American troops liberated the world from Hitler's onslaught. This is not true; the Soviets sacrificed tens of millions to defeat the Germans. The Americans were just a suppression force. Stalin was distraught that it had taken the United States so long to launch a major offensive against Hitler on the Western European front. U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt bled the Soviets in order to reduce the deaths of American soldiers. In the Pacific Theater, although the United States defeated Japan, they never faced a full-scale Japanese onslaught because Japan devoted most of its fighting power to the mainland. Instead of promoting D-Day in movies, Hollywood should show the Battle of Stalingrad, the heroic deeds of General Zhukov and the millions of Russian soldiers who died.

After World War II, the US military drew a draw with North Korea in the Korean War, lost to North Vietnam in the Vietnam War, retreated hastily in Afghanistan after ten years in 2021, and now lost to Russia in Ukraine. The only decent record of the U.S. military is that it used extremely advanced and extremely expensive weapons to deal with third world countries such as Iraq in the two Gulf Wars.

The key is that victory in the war is a reflection of the soundness of the industrial economy. If you care about the war, the American economy is in shambles. Yes, Americans can do leveraged buyouts just like any other. However, their weapons systems are a mixture of imported products sold at high prices to captive customers such as Saudi Arabia, who are required to purchase the systems under geopolitical agreements. Russia's economy is less than one-tenth the size of the United States' on paper, but it produces unstoppable hypersonic missiles at a fraction of the cost of conventional American-made missiles.

Trump is no peace-loving hippie; he fully believes in American military supremacy and exceptionalism, and is happy to use this military power to slaughter human beings. Remember, during his first term, he assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil, to the delight of large swaths of the American public. Trump cared nothing about violating Iraqi airspace and unilaterally deciding to murder a general in another country with which the United States was not officially at war. Therefore, he wants to rearm the Empire properly so that its capabilities live up to the hype.

Trump advocates reindustrializing America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who want a strong military. To do this, the imbalances created under the petro-yuan system need to be reversed. This will be achieved by devaluing the dollar, providing tax subsidies and subsidies to increase production, and deregulating. All these factors combined will make it an economically sensible choice for companies to move production to India, as it is currently the best place to produce their products, due to the growth-promoting regulations enacted over the past three decades.

In my article "Black or White?" ”, I talked about quantitative easing (QE) targeting the poor and how it would fund the reindustrialization of the United States. I believe that the incoming US TreasuryMinister of Interior Bessant will promote such an industry. However, this will take time, and Trump will need to deliver immediate results in his first year in office that he can sell to voters as progress. So I think Trump and Bessant must devalue the dollar immediately. I want to discuss how this is achieved and why it must happen in the first half of 2025.

“Gold is money, everything else is credit.” – J.P Morgan

Trump and Bessant repeatedly discuss weakening dollar to achieve U.S. economic goals. The question is, against what currency should the dollar depreciate, and when?

Except the United States, the largest exporters in the world are (currency: RMB), the European Union (currency: euro), the United Kingdom (currency: pound) and Japan (currency: yen). The dollar must weaken against all of these currencies to encourage lucrative companies to move production within the United States. Companies do not necessarily need to be registered in the United States; Trump has allowed manufacturers to set up factories in the United States and sell their products locally. But Americans must buy products made in American factories.

Coordinated monetary agreements are a thing of the 1980s. Currently, relative to the rest of the world, the U.S.'s economic and military strength is not as strong as it was then. Therefore, Bessant does not have the ability to unilaterally command other exchange rates. Of course, Bessant can use carrots and sticks to coax everyone into agreeing to devalue their currencies against the dollar. This can be accomplished through the use of tariffs or the threat of tariffs. However, this will take time and a lot of diplomacy. There is an easier way.

The United States holds 8,133.46 tons of gold, the largest of any sovereign, at least on paper. As we all know, gold is the true currency of global trade. The United States had only been off the gold standard for 50 years. The gold standard has been the rule throughout history, while the current fiat currency system is the exception. The path of least resistance to achieving Bessant's goal is to depreciate the dollar relative to gold.

Currently, the value of gold on the U.S. balance sheet is $42.22 per ounce. Technically, the Treasury Department issues gold certificates to the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury Department values ​​at $42.22 per ounce. Suppose Bessant could convince the U.S. Congress to change the legal price of gold, thereby devaluing the dollar against gold. In this case, the Treasury's general account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve would receive dollar credits that could be used in the economy. The greater the depreciation, the higher the TGA balance will immediately increase. This makes sense because, essentially, the dollar is created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. For every increase in the legal price of gold of $3,824/oz, the TGA would increase by $1 trillion. For example, adjusting carrying costs to the current spot price of gold would generate $695 billion in TGA credits.

Under the Act, dollars can be created by changing the holding cost of gold, which can then be used to purchase goods and services. This is the definition of fiat currency devaluation. Since all other fiat currencies also have an implicit gold value based on the amount of gold they each hold, these currencies will automatically appreciate relative to the US dollar. Overnight, without consulting any other Treasury, the United States could achieve a significant devaluation of the dollar for all of its major trading partners.

The most important question is, couldn't the largest exporting country recover from the weakness of its currency by depreciating more than the dollar against gold? Sure, they could try, but none of these currencies are global reserve currencies and don't have the inherent demand that comes with trade and financial flows. Therefore, they cannot match the depreciation of gold in the United States, which will quickly lead to hyperinflation in their economy. Hyperinflation is a given because none of these/groups are as self-sufficient in energy or food as the US is. This is unacceptable because the social unrest caused by inflation will force the ruling elite to step down.

Tell me how much dollar weakness it will take to re-industrialize the U.S. economy and I will tell you the new gold price. If I were Bessant, I would invest heavily. A big investment would mean a $10,000 to $20,000/oz revaluation. Luke Gromen estimates that a return to the ratio of gold to the Fed's dollar liabilities back to the 1980s would result in a 14x increase in gold prices from current levels, to a devalued price closer to $40,000 an ounce. This was not what I expected, but illustrates how overvalued the USD is relative to gold's current spot price of around $2,700/oz.

As many of you know, I am a little gold bug. I own physical gold bars and junior gold mining exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in vaults because the easiest way for the dollar to lose value is against gold. Politicians always push the easy button first. But this is Cryptocurrency Trader’s Digest, so how does a $20,000/oz gold price drive up the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

Many cryptocurrency hopefuls focus first on discussions of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR). U.S. Senator Lummis has introduced legislation that would require the Treasury Department to purchase 200,000 BTC annually for five years. Interestingly, if you read the bill, she proposes to fund the purchases by raising the price of gold held on the balance sheet, as I stated above.

The case for the BSR is similar to the case for the United States storing more gold than anyone else; it enables the United States to assert financial hegemony over all others in both the digital and physical realms. If Bitcoin is the hardest currency ever, then the strongest fiat currency is the one whose central bank owns the most Bitcoin. Furthermore, a fiscal policy that rises and falls with the price of Bitcoin would be beneficial in its environment.Expanding the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ecosystem within . This is similar to how gold mining is encouraged and a robust gold trading market established. See how gold ownership is being encouraged through the Shanghai Gold Futures Exchange, an example of a gold-positive effort aimed at increasing the financial strength of Canada and its citizens in real currency terms.

If the United States creates more dollars through the depreciation of gold and uses some of those dollars to buy Bitcoin, its fiat price will rise. This in turn would stimulate competing sovereign purchases by other countries, which must catch up to the United States. Then the price of Bitcoin will gradually increase because no one will sell Bitcoin and get fiat currency that is actively depreciating. Of course, long-term holders will sell their Bitcoin at a fiat price, but that price won’t be $100,000. The argument is logical, but I still don't believe BSR will happen. I think politicians would rather spend their newly created dollars on the welfare of the people to ensure they win the next upcoming election. However, it does not matter whether BSR occurs in the United States, as the mere threat of it creates buying pressure.

Although I do not believe that the United States will buy Bitcoin, this does not affect my optimistic view of Bitcoin prices. Ultimately, gold's depreciation creates dollars, which must find a home in real goods/services and financial assets. We know from experience that because Bitcoin has a limited supply and a shrinking supply in circulation, its price rises faster than the global supply of U.S. dollars.

The Fed’s balance sheet is in white and Bitcoin is in yellow. Both had an index of 100 on January 1, 2011. The Fed’s balance sheet increased by 2.83x, while Bitcoin increased by 317,500x.

In summary, a rapid and substantial devaluation of the dollar is the first step for Trump and Bessent to achieve their economic goals. It's also something they can do overnight, without consulting lawmakers or foreign finance ministers. Given that Trump has a year to show progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, my base case is for the dollar to depreciate against gold in the first half of 2025.

Next, let’s take a slow look at , and speculate on how they might respond to “Trump Truth.”

has faced two major problems recently. There is a need to create employment opportunities for the over 20% of unemployed educated youth and arrest the fall in real estate prices. Trump’s truth creates problems because the United States also needs to provide better-paying jobs for civilians and greater financial investment in productive capacity. I discussed in the previous section that the big sticks Trump and his deputies will wield are a weak dollar and tariffs. What's the weapon in your hand?

I think it has been made clear that ideologically speaking, quantitative easing must be implemented and the RMB allowed to be freefloat. So far, little fiscal stimulus has been implemented, paid for in currency printed by central banks. I think it's because they don't want to exacerbate economic imbalances. Furthermore, they are on the sidelines until a new American emperor is elected. But over the past few weeks, it has become clear that large-scale stimulus will be implemented through the proven financial channel of quantitative easing, allowing the yuan to float freely.

For those who don’t understand why QE causes the RMB to depreciate, remember that QE expands the supply of RMB. If the supply of RMB grows faster than another fiat currency, then mathematically the RMB depreciates relative to that currency. In addition, RMB holders may rush ahead of the central bank and sell RMB today in exchange for a fixed supply of financial assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks to protect their future purchasing power. This can also lead to currency devaluation.

Comrades have already begun to withdraw money.

As I explained before, due to food and energy shortages, they cannot afford to go tit-for-tat with the United States and devalue the yuan against gold. This will lead to hyperinflation. But this does not mean that the supply of RMB cannot be significantly increased to provide support for real estate, whose slump has led to deflation. Recent headlines have been that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is willing to let the yuan depreciate in response to Trump's tariff threats, signaling readiness for full-blown quantitative easing.

With Donald Trump back in the White House, top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to depreciate in 2025 in response to higher U.S. trade tariffs. – Reuters, December 11, 2024

I believe the reason why the People’s Bank of China is being vague about why it must allow the yuan to float freely and ultimately depreciate against the dollar in the short term is Because they don’t want to intensify the rate of capital flight. Telling our wealthy comrades directly that the People's Bank of China's now explicit focus on printing renminbi and buying bonds will only set off alarm bells in the minds of the investing public and cause capital to rush across the border, first into Hong Kong and then from Hong Kong to the rest of the world. The People's Bank of China hopes investors will take the hint and buy stocks and real estate instead.

Eventually, as I predicted in the article "Come on Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin", the People's Bank of China will adopt enough quantitative easing and monetary stimulus measures to stop deflation. If bond (CGB) yields start to rise, we'll know if these will work. Currently, CGB yields are at historically low levels as investors would rather buy RMB principal-protected investment instruments (bonds) than risk losses in the stock and real estate markets. This suggests pessimism about the medium-term strength of the economy. It's easy to turn pessimism into optimism, just print a lot of yuan and make it public through the central bankMarket operations simply remove CGB from an investor's portfolio. This is the definition of quantitative easing. See the T-chart in my "Black and White?" article to see how this process works.

The problem with money printing at the macro level has always been the external value of the RMB. A strong yuan has some positive external effects. It helps consumers buy imported goods at cheaper prices. It increases the likelihood that trading partners will denominated the goods they trade with the RMB, as they can instead use the RMB to purchase manufactured goods with the confidence that the real value of the RMB will remain stable over the long term. It also helps businesses borrow RMB at affordable rates. However, all of these positives mean nothing in the face of Trump’s truth. Let me be clear: The United States can print more money than without hyperinflation. Trump and Bessant have made clear that's what they intend to do. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will be allowed to float against the US dollar, which means that the RMB will depreciate in the short term.

Before Besant depreciates the dollar significantly against gold, a weaker yuan will allow manufacturers to export more products. In the short term, this will bring production forward and help get into a stronger position in negotiations with Trump, when certain demands from the Trump team must be agreed to in exchange for manufacturers having better access to the U.S. consumer market.

The question that cryptocurrency investors should be thinking about is how wealthy investors will respond to signals that the People’s Bank of China will increase the supply of yuan. Will capital flight through various legal channels in Macau (casinos) and Hong Kong (companies registered in Hong Kong by owners) be allowed to operate normally, or will these channels be closed to sequester capital within the country? Given the U.S. path of limiting the ability of certain pools of capital, such as the Texas Public University Endowment Fund, to invest in assets, why would newly issued yuan be allowed to flow into the U.S. via Hong Kong to help fund Trump’s economic goals? Printed yuan must be used to buy stocks and real estate. So while the door is open, I expect capital flight from RMB against the US dollar to intensify as sooner or later this opportunity will disappear.

For cryptocurrencies, at least in the short term, capital will flow out of Hong Kong and be converted into US dollars to buy Bitcoin and other junk coins. In the medium term, once China responds by banning capital flight through mobile and obvious channels, the question will be whether Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs will be allowed to accept southbound capital flows from mainland investors. If China believes that de facto control of cryptocurrency ownership through Hong Kong’s state-owned asset management company will strengthen, or at least make it as competitive as the United States in the cryptocurrency space, then Hong Kong ETFs will quickly accumulate assets. This would add another pillar to the crypto bull market, as these ETF managers would have to purchase spot cryptocurrencies on the global open market.

On the other side of the Sea of ​​Japan, the elites who manage export rival Japanese Electronics are thinking about how to deal with the special situation.Trump truth.

Although Japan’s elite politicians are proud of their culture and history, they are still America’s “towel bitches.” Japan moved on after the nuclear attack, rebuilding itself into the world's second-largest economy by the early 1990s, aided by dollar loans and tariff-free access to U.S. consumers. Most importantly for my lifestyle, Japan has built the most ski resorts in the world. Just like today, the trade and financial imbalances of the 1980s caused an uproar among American elites and financial circles, forcing a rebalancing. Some argue that the currency accords of the 1980s weakened the dollar and strengthened the yen, ultimately popping bubbles in Japan's stock and real estate markets in 1989. The logic is that in order to strengthen the yen, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has to tighten the currency, causing the bubble to burst. As always, real estate and stock bubbles are blown by money printing and burst when easy money slows or stops. The problem is that Japanese politicians will engage in financial hara-kiri to please American daimyo.

Today, as in the 1980s, there is a huge financial imbalance between Japan and the United States. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds of all. Japan also implemented aggressive quantitative easing, which evolved into yield curve control (YCC), resulting in extreme weakness in the USD/JPY exchange rate. I talked about the importance of the USD/JPY exchange rate in these two articles: "I Don't Care" and "Spirited Away."

Trump’s truth is that the dollar should appreciate against the yen. Trump and Bessant both know this has to happen. Unlike , there will be a confrontational currency adjustment, whereas in Japan, Bessent will determine the direction of the USD/JPY exchange rate, and the Japanese will follow.

The problem with a rising yen is that it means the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates. Without intervention, the following will happen:

1. As interest rates rise, Japanese bonds (JGB) become more attractive, and Japanese companies, households, and pension funds will sell foreign stocks and bonds (mainly U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks), convert foreign exchange proceeds into Japanese yen, and buy Japanese bonds.

2. The rise in Japanese government bond yields means falling prices, which will have a significant negative impact on the Bank of Japan's balance sheet. In addition, the Bank of Japan holds large amounts of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks, and as Japanese investors sell these bonds to repatriate capital, the prices of these bonds will also fall. Additionally, the Bank of Japan must pay higher interest on yen bank reserves. Ultimately, as this process unfolds, this is bad news for the Bank of Japan's solvency.

Trump hopes Japan’s financial system can avoid collapse. U.S. naval bases in Japan can deter maritime power, while Japanese-produced semiconductors help ensure that the U.S. has friendly supplies of critical components. Therefore, Trump will instruct Bessent to take necessary measures to ensure that JapanSurvive economically with a rising yen. There are multiple ways to do this; one would be for Bessent to use the powers of the U.S. Treasury to offer a USD-JPY central bank currency swap to the Bank of Japan, so that any selloffs in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. equities would be absorbed on the sidelines . Below is a description of the process from my article Spirited Away.

The Federal Reserve - they increase the supply of dollars, or in other words, in return they receive the yen previously created by the increase in carry trades.

CSWAP—The Bank of Japan owes the Fed dollars, and the Fed owes the Bank of Japan yen.

BoJ - They now hold more U.S. stocks and bonds, whose prices will rise due to an increase in the amount of dollars due to growing CSWAP balances.

Japanese banks - they now hold additional Japanese government bonds.

This is important for cryptocurrencies because the amount of dollars will increase to fund the unwinding of massive USD/JPY carry trades. The unwinding will be slow, but trillions of dollars will be printed to keep Japan's financial system solvent.

Correcting the Japan-U.S. trade and financial imbalances is fairly easy because Japan ultimately has no say and is currently so weak politically that it cannot raise any real objections. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its parliamentary majority, throwing Japan's governance into turmoil. Elites are as incapable of opposing Trump’s truth as they are secretly disgusted by uncivilized Americans.

While many Europeans (at least those not named Muhammad) are somewhat Christian, the biblical statement "the last will be first" has an economic impact Definitely not applicable to the EU. The last will be the last. Whatever the reason, Europe's elite continue to hold on to this position and accept Uncle Sam's merciless blows. Europe should do everything it can to integrate with Russia and Russia. Russia provides the cheapest energy through pipelines and provides food to feed its people. Offering cheap, high-quality manufactured goods and a willingness to buy European luxury goods in quantities that would make Marie Antoinette blush. Instead of trying to integrate into the huge and unstoppable Eurasian common prosperity circle, the European continent has long been confused by the two island countries of Britain and the United States.

The economies of Germany and France are in trouble as Europe is unwilling to buy cheap Russian gas, abandon its green energy transition scam, or enter into mutually beneficial trade with . Germany and France are the economic engines of Europe - the rest of the continent is probably just a resort for Arabs, Russians (well, maybe not anymore) and Americans. It's ironic considering how much European elites hate people in these areas, but those with money have the final say and those without money stand aside.

This year, Super Mario Draghi (The Future of European Competitiveness, September 2024) and Emmanuel Macron (2024"European Lectures" delivered in April 2001) delivered two very important speeches. What’s frustrating about these speeches, if you’re European, is that both speakers correctly identify the problems facing Europe – namely expensive energy and lack of investment – ​​but offer solutions that ultimately amount to “we need to print More money to fund the green energy transition and more financial repression.” The right solution is to abandon staunch support for American elite risk-taking, achieve détente with Russia to access cheap gas, embrace nuclear energy, trade more with the United States, and radically deregulate financial markets. Another depressing fact is that many European voters who, like me, believe that the current combination is not in their best interests, went to the polls and elected parties that wanted to bring about these changes. But the elites in power are doing everything they can to weaken the will of the majority. With neither France nor Germany actually in power, unrest continues.

Trump’s truth is that the United States still requires Europe to avoid Russia, limit trade with the United States, purchase American-made weapons to defend against attacks by Russia and the United States, and prevent the strong integration of Eurasia. As these have a negative impact on the economy, the EU must resort to financial repression and money printing to maintain a balance of payments. I will use a few words from Macron to illustrate the future of European finance and explain why you should be afraid if you hold capital in Europe. You should be worried that your ability to escape Europe's capital basement will be shut down and the only thing you can buy in your retirement account or bank deposits are bad long-term EU bonds.

Before I quote Macron, I would like to quote Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister and current director of the think tank Jacques Delors Institute:

The EU has private savings of up to 33 trillion euros, mainly held in the form of current accounts (34.1%). However, this wealth is not fully exploited to meet the EU's strategic needs; a worrying trend is that European resources are diverted annually towards the U.S. economy and U.S. asset managers. This phenomenon highlights the serious inefficiency of the EU's use of savings, which if effectively used within its own economy would go a long way toward achieving its strategic goals. —Much More Than A Market

Letta had no doubt he saw the problem; Macron’s subsequent remarks reiterated those views. European capital should not be funded by American companies, but by European companies. The authorities know better than you what to do with your capital, and they can force you to hold underperforming European assets in various ways. For example, for those who park their money with institutional money managers through pension funds or retirement accounts, EU financial regulators can define the appropriate investment universe so that your investment manager can only legally buy EU stocks and bonds. For those who keep their money in banks, regulators could ban banks from offering non-EU stocks and bondssecurities investments because they are not “suitable” for savers. Any time your money is placed with an EU-regulated trustee, you are at the mercy of the likes of Christine Lagarde and her merry band of Muppets. Maybe you like her, but make no mistake, as president of the European Central Bank (ECB) her job is to financially ensure the survival of EU projects, not to help your savings grow faster than her bank can keep the system solvent required inflation rate.

If you think only people at the World Economic Forum in Davos would advocate such a thing, here's a quote from a notorious racist, fascist, [fill in the blank]ist... who Says...Marine Le Pen:

Europe should wake up... because the United States will defend its interests more vigorously.

"Trump's truth" has also attracted attention in the EU's left- and right-wing political circles.

Returning to the point that EU politicians refuse to take simple and less economically damaging measures to solve their problems, here is Macron's blunt statement for the people:

“As a result, Europe buys energy and fertilizer from Russia, outsources The days of relying on the United States for security are over.”

Macron continued to emphasize that EU capital must not be directed to the best-performing financial products, but must be invested in Europe’s wasteland. Land:

"The third disadvantage: every year, our savings are about 3,000 Billions of euros to finance Americans, both in treasury bills and in capital risks. ”

Finally, in a final blow, Macron said he would suspend Basel III banks. supervision. Essentially, this would allow banks to buy unlimited amounts of high-priced, low-yielding EU bonds. Those who hold euro-denominated assets will lose because this effectively allows the supply of euros to increase indefinitely.

“Second, we need to re-examine the way Basel and the solvency standards are applied. We cannot be the only economic region in the world to apply these standards. The United States was the culprit of the 2008-2010 financial crisis ”

Macron rightly pointed out that Americans do not abide by these global banking rules and concluded that Europeans do not need to either. Hello, the collapse of fiat finance against Bitcoin and gold.

Draghi went on to point out in his latest report that in addition to funding huge welfare benefits (France, for example, spends the highest proportion of GDP among developed countries at 57%), the EU also An investment of 800 billion euros is required. Where does this money come from? The money will come from the ECB printing money toand EU savers buying bad long-term EU bonds under financial pressure.

I'm not making this shit up. These are direct quotes from both the left and right sides of the EU spectrum. They tell you they know best how to invest EU savings. They tell you that banks should be able to use unlimited leverage to buy the bonds of EU member states, which will eventually be issued by the ECB following the issuance of pan-Euro bonds. And the reasoning behind this is the Trump truth. If the United States under Trump is to weaken the dollar, suspend prudential banking regulations, and force Europe to cut ties with Russia and Russia, then EU savers will have to accept subpar returns and financial repression. EU cowards should sacrifice their capital and their real living standards to preserve the EU project. I'm sure you noticed a lot of eye-rolling in the tone of this section, but if you want to lower living standards in Europe, I won't be mad at you. I bet many of you enjoy waving the flag in public, but at home rush to your computer trying to get away as quickly as possible. You know, the way out is to buy Bitcoin before it gets banned and keep it yourself. But EU readers, that's your choice.

Globally, Bitcoin will rise sharply as the circulation of the euro increases and the constraints on EU capital tighten. This is a given by the elites. However, I believe this will be a "do as I say, not as I do" situation. Those in power will secretly move assets to Switzerland and Liechtenstein and go on a buying spree of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, those who refuse to listen and protect their savings will suffer under sanctioned inflation. This is how the croissant peels.

Our End of Truth is the 24/7 free cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s rise following Trump’s victory in early November was a leading indicator of accelerating growth in the fiat currency supply. To deal with the Trump truth, every major economic group must respond immediately. The response was to devalue the currency and increase financial repression.

Bitcoin (yellow) is leading an increase in U.S. bank credit (white).

Does this mean that Bitcoin price will rise directly to $1 million without any significant correction? Absolutely not.

I don’t think the market realizes how little time Trump actually has left to get anything done. The market believes that Trump and his team can create economic and economic miracles immediately. The problems that contributed to Trump's popularity have been decades in the making. So no matter what Elon Musk tells you on X, there is no immediate solution. As a result, it will be nearly impossible for Trump to appease his base sufficiently to prevent Democrats from retaking both legislative chambers in 2026. People are impatient because they are desperate. Trump is a shrewd politician who understands his supporters. To me, that means he has to make a big move sooner rather than later, which is why I'm betting on himThe dollar would depreciate significantly against gold during his first 100 days in office. It's a simple way to quickly make U.S. production costs globally competitive. It will result in an immediate reshoring of production capacity, leading to increased hiring today, not five years from now.

Before we enter the crash phase of the cryptocurrency bull market, I believe the cryptocurrency market will experience a painful plunge around the time of Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Maelstrom will be offloading certain positions early, with hopes of repurchasing some core positions at lower prices sometime in the first half of 2025. Apparently every trader says this and believes they can time the market. And most of the time, they end up selling prematurely and subsequently lacking the confidence to buy back at a higher price than they had just held on to. Then, for the remainder of the bull market, the aforementioned traders will be underinvested. Knowing this, if the bull market becomes unstoppable on January 20, we will admit defeat, lick our wounds, and get back into the bull market. Trump Truth showed me the structural flaws of the global order. Trump Truth taught me that the best way to maximize returns is to hold Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, I would buy the dip.

Yahtzee (Note: Yahtzee is a classic dice game that combines a unique combination of luck and strategy)! ! !