Author: Bingfrog Source: X, @Ice_Frog666666

Babylon As the leader of the re-pled track, tonight I have registered a foundation account, which implies that TGE is about to be imminent. Let’s analyze the Babylon project situation and the participation value of airdrops.

1. Basic project overview: strong team and luxurious investment lineup

1.1 Founding team

The project founding team has a strong academic background. Although there are many Chinese faces in the team configuration, most of the main functional managers are overseas people. A brief introduction to its main founding team and core management.

David Tse (co-founder): top academic resume, a member of the American Academy of Engineering, a professor at the University of Chicago and Stanford University.

Mingchao (Fisher) Yu (CTO and co-founder): served as a lecturer at the Australian National University and later served as a senior research engineer and chief engineer at Dolby Laboratory

Dong Xinshu (Chief Strategy Officer): Co-founder of RockX and Zilliqa, and a technical partner of well-known VC IOSG Ventures

Sankha Banerjee (Chief Agreement Economist): Graduated from MIT and worked at Nibiru.

Spyros Kekos (community leader): Previously served as community leader of exchange Gate.io.

In addition to the above personnel, if you look at the configuration of the project management team in detail, you can see that most of the core personnel have at least 3 positions in terms of the requirements of this position. -5 years of relevant experience, or experience in well-known projects and transactions, this reflects that the entire Babylon management team has rich experience in blockchain, which will also make the operation of the entire project more mature and in line with industry development.

In addition, as an academician, David Tse's senior academic background has also given the outside world sufficient technical strength.Confidence, and at the same time, many core teams have investment backgrounds, which also means that the project has sufficient channels for investment resources, which is directly reflected in its investment and financing situation.

1.2 Investment and financing situation

From the financing round, Babylon will be from seed turn Round A went through a whole year, but the financing speed and amount of the main network before it was A's turn to be online has increased rapidly, which shows that the project has made careful investments in the test network in the early development stage, and only on this basis will the next one begin. round of financing. The last round of financing in May 2024 was as high as 70 million, with a total financing scale of US$96 million, which is very considerable in terms of financing scale.

In terms of the investment team, the project investment team is very luxurious and has a relatively diverse investment background.

As shown above, in addition to the traditional top VC funds Paradigm and Polychain, transactions What we represent directly includes first-tier institutions such as Binance and OKX.

In terms of individual investors, there are Ajit Tripathi (formerly ConsenSys FinTech Partner), Ryan Fang (formerly Ankr co-founder), and Jia Yaoqi (formerly AltLayer founder ) and other well-known people.

It can be seen that the financing background is really luxurious, covering almost all types and background investment funds, which also means that the project has very sufficient resources.

In summary, the project pays great attention to the team's experience and technical reserves, and is also very comprehensive in configuration. It is a team setting that is high but not out of reality. This ensures the project's operational sustainability and subsequent long-term development. From the perspective of financing, VCs of various backgrounds have given comprehensive support to the project in various resources, which not only shows that the funds are optimistic about the track in which the project is located, but also indicates that the project has a high growth space in the future.

2. Project advantages: Give full play to the POW security advantages and make BTC flow

The analysis of re-staking and Babylon has been analyzed. After summarizing it, it is actually correct. Babylon has several consensuses, which are also the main projectAdvantages.

1. Focus on activate idle assets of the BTC network and promote the prosperity of the BTC ecosystem

BTC It is BTC, and cryptocurrency is cryptocurrency. As BTC, which accounts for more than half of the assets in the entire currency circle, how to make BTC assets flow and operate have always been a major problem.

BTC's Holder has always been based on security considerations, and it is difficult to get BTC to move from its wallet account. After all, in the custody mode, the asset losses caused by private key leakage are a model that no BTC HOLder can bear or accept. They would rather lie down and eat dust than take a little risk, especially because of the BTC main network Its own Turing is incomplete, and there is no way to use smart contracts like Ethereum to safely cross-chain. Therefore, under the influence of this inherent perception and the defects of the BTC network itself, the asset value and utilization rate of BTC have always been high. Not proportional.

Babylon is based on this pain point and has created a self-custodial pledge agreement that does not require trust. In layman's terms, under this plan, the user's assets On the basis of your own control, achieve safe staking. In this process, behind this pledge, the computing power security under the POW mechanism on BTC is used to enhance the security of many other POS chains, so as to achieve benefits from multiple parties. To achieve the above point, Babylon has its own unique technology, which is also one of the reasons why the market is widely recognized.

2. Bitcoin timestamp and pledge protocol are the two pillars of technology establishment

For POS chains, especially those that use Byzantine fault tolerance, most require 2/3 of the votes to confirm the block. Although most POS chains avoid forking attacks through confiscation measures, if there is no additional source of trust, this kind of situation Attacks are almost difficult to avoid.

So some POS chains will bind security to stakeholders, which will lead to a long unstaking time. Based on this situation, Babylon's main solution is to migrate the block checkpoints of the entire POS chain to the Bitcoin network. Due to the POW nature, if an attacker chooses fork to attack, it has a later time stamp on the Bitcoin chain. This way, it can be effectively avoided by passing the Bitcoin timestampRanged attack.

A more vivid metaphor is: the timestamp of the Bitcoin network is a game Recording system, all the players' finishing time is recorded here. If a player wants to tamper with his finishing time, the Bitcoin network will find that his arrival time is incorrect, and will refuse; if he forcibly tamper with it, he must create a bit bit. The coin network has a longer fork, which is almost impossible to achieve in terms of cost. Another benefit of this technology is that it can significantly shorten the POS chain staking release time, and it can also be more censor-resistant.

In the specific pledge agreement, the project adopts remote equity pledge, and the so-called remote equity pledge means locking the pledged Bitcoin on the Bitcoin chain. In the contract, when the staker violates the PoS chain protocol, the Bitcoin pledged by the breach of the protocol is reduced on the Bitcoin chain. The main technology implemented is implemented through Bitcoin covenant emulation, which is mainly based on technological improvements under the characteristics of Bitcoin UTXO. The specific technical details are not expanded. The path given by the official website can be mainly referred to as the following path.

As shown above, based on the specific rules of Bitcoin covenant technology, the entire bit can be guaranteed Unbundled coin pledge and reduced penalties.

3. Cross BTC and many other EVM chains to empower Cosmos ecological security

To a certain extent, Babylon does not belong to crypto asset equity pledge, nor is it different from Eigenlayer's feature layer network to ensure security. It is closer to an innovative use case of cross-chain equity pledge protocol. In fact, the entire empowerment of the POS chain and It does not rely on Bitcoin assets, but the POW computing power mechanism of the Bitcoin network.

Because Babylon's cross-chain communication technology and secure sharing come from Cosmos, the project This kind of security sharing innovation that utilizes BTC network has a great promoting effect on the Cosmos ecosystem. For the Cosmos chain, it will also actively embrace the security sharing brought by Babylon innovation, so that the entire ecosystem can be affected.beneficial.

3. Development prospects: The potential scale is promising, but there are many challenges.

Babylon is currently the largest re-private in the BTC ecosystem, and its current lock-in value exceeds 5.5 billion USD, a total of 5.6w BTC. In the pledge, the overall participation rate is only 0.26% compared with the total amount of 21 million BTC. Even if the participation rate reaches 1%, the overall TVL still has more than 4 times the growth space, from the entire There is indeed a lot of room for improvement in the upper limit scale, which may be the reason why many investors are willing to provide high financing.

From another unfavorable perspective, Babylon faces challenges or growth, Less dilemma. Whether it is the recognition of the POS chain or the participation of the BTC holder requires continuous educational costs and habit development. Especially for BTC big players, their participation will be more cautious.

In addition, a key that needs special consideration is that after Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies began to reserve Bitcoin one after another, Bitcoin in the market gradually began to enter institutions and For large-scale transfers, if Babylon wants to further increase its participation, how to form a more attractive plan for institutions and large-scale owners still needs to continue to work hard on project innovation and operation.

IV. Airdrop Opportunities and Risk Analysis: Idle funds participate, and the value of points may be small surprises

Through the previous analysis, we can see that whether it is technology, financing or The team and Babylon have their own unique features and have sufficient upper limits in the long run. As the industry leader, with TGE approaching, whether it has participation value for many airdrop users, is further data analysis below.

4.1 Test website: The official clearly states that there is no incentive, but considers 0 costs, and you can participate appropriately to prevent missing the situation

On January 8, the project opened the test network. The official document repeatedly emphasized that the test network has no incentives. Given that the cost of 0 can be appropriately participated to prevent missed airdrops, according to the estimated airdrop share, If there is subsequent airdrop, the early test network may reach US$300-500 per capita.

4.2 Mainnet points: annualized rate of returnShangjia, you can participate in idle funds

At present, if you want to obtain airdrops, you can only get points through related items. The points will be redeemed for airdrops in the future, and the main pledged items are There are Lorenzo, Solv, etc. Lorenzo accounts for 40% of the total pledge and is also a large-scale project with no coins issued.

According to Dune panel data, the current total points are about 130 million, with daily growth About 1 million points, assuming an in-week TGE, the final points are about 160 million.

4.3 Calculation of the value of points

Method 1: Divide the total number of points per day by the total Pledge volume (about 17.92 per day)

Method 2: According to the total supply Time distribution calculates the integral (about 38.35 per day)

The total supply distribution over time (by calculating the Babylonian BTC deposits and total BTC of LRT The ratio between deposits, and then multiply the ratio by the Babylonian points issued on the day to calculate the points it earns. The supply points are made by summing the daily token supply for a period of time. Calculation)

Method 3: Babylonian points obtained by the protocol and the total BTC of the protocol Simple ratio between balances (about 31.53 per day)

According to the above three These methods respectively obtain three values: 17.92, 38.35, and 31.53.

4.4 Comprehensive income estimate

Because of Babylon's higher pledge amount and its Leading position, the FDV after conservative launch is 3-5 billion US dollars, there is a precedent for issuing coins in the BTC re-pled agreement, and the share of Solv Protocol airdrop is7.65%. In order to stabilize its leading position, Babylon estimates that the airdrop share will be around 10%, that is, US$300 million to US$500 million. (Due to the poor market conditions, this is a conservative estimate, and the normal valuation should be between 5 and 10 billion US dollars)

Table 1: Value per point

Table 2: Comparison table of pledged BTC (BTC price is based on the price at the time of writing: 98,522 U)

Comprehensive income: by calculating the current pledge current rate at 1.02 %-3.66% About , there is idle BTC Saving is a good choice.

Main airdrop risks: The overall end time is unknown, the airdrop rules are still unclear, and there are certain potential risks.

In general, as a VC project with high financing, exchange fund support, and high track ceiling, both operational maturity and Judging from the current progress, it is relatively smooth, and there is also a high room for growth, which has laid the foundation for the project TGE to arouse high market popularity. At the same time, from the current limited information, it is speculated that participation at this stage still has a certain cost-effectiveness. You can participate on demand based on your own situation.