Bitcoin has been repeatedly fucked around $100,000 in recent months, and has even fallen below $90,000. Some people suspect that the bull market has ended, but when it recharges a wave of faith Now.

I prefer that now is the last drop.

Twilight witnesses true believers.

Bitcoin reaches $100,000, which is a definite event and the starting point. I have always believed that BTC is a risk-free and stable asset, but Bitcoin will not stop Here, traditional financial capital will not be so unconventional.

At this time, we need to know where we have been now and where we will be in the future.

To extend the dimensions of the time, we will review 2024 and look forward to 2025, so that we can see the direction of the market clearly.

1. How do you view the rapid rise of Bitcoin in 2024?

A wave of rapid rise in Bitcoin is a comprehensive overlay of many factors:

The most direct The factor is the entry of ETFs, the entry of traditional funds;

The indirect factor is that it is currently in the Fed's interest rate cut channel, and the liquidity of the capital market has improved;

The long-term factor is expectations, expectations for Trump's future;

Lastly, there is The impact of Bitcoin's own cycle, the output in April 2024 was halved, and the incremental speed was already lower than that of gold.

In short, in 2024, it can be said that it has gathered the right time, place and people. It not only has the driving force of the external macro environment, but also superimposed on the industry's own Intrinsic driving force.

2. How do you view the future price trend of Bitcoin?

The end price of Bitcoin is very vague and cannot guide investment, so don't guess the end price. Many institutions predict that Bitcoin will reach US$500,000 and 1 million in the future. No price for US dollarsValue.

Therefore, we must limit it to the medium and short term, that is, to look at the price trend in the next one or two years.

To answer this question, we must first clarify the current market stage: we have entered the second half of the bull market.

In September 2024, when Bitcoin was more than 70,000, everyone was still wondering if it really entered a bull market, but there was no one for Bitcoin of 100,000. Suspicious.

According to the cyclical theory, the entire industry is still in the middle of the bull market, so after the market sentiment reaches extreme greed, there is no need to panic for subsequent pullbacks, and the main uptrend will still arrival.

For example, in March 2024, the market continued for more than a month in a state of greed, and finally the BTC price reached a temporary high of about US$73,000. The callback was only launched later, and the callback and sideways lasted for more than half a year.

If the first wave of main upward trend from 16,000 in January 2023 to 72,000 in March 2024 is the first wave of main upward trend, the market has gone through a long intermission break Later, starting from September 2024, it entered the second half of the bull market and entered the second major upward cycle.

In this main upward wave, BTC price will have a brief decline or last for several months, but the overall trend is still upward, this upward trend The cycle will also last for about a year.

The bull market is born in pessimism, born in despair, grows in doubt, matures in optimism, and dies in excitement.

Don't doubt it, welcome to enter the second half of the bull market.

However, will there be a third wave in the future? After the BTC price exceeds 100,000, no one knows where it will go in the future, and no one can Guess the top.

It can only be said that after the price of BTC exceeded 100,000, the ceiling opened, and the market in 2025 is worth looking forward to.

Don't guess the top, no one can guess the top. The key depends on everyone's own psychological expectations and profit expectations. For example, the average cost is 20,000, and then 100,000 is already 5 times.

We only look at the cycle and trends. This cycle starts early, and there may be a historical BTC high in the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around $150,000.

3. Is there any opportunity in the Bitcoin ecosystem?

First look at it from a macro perspective, where does the industry liquidity come from? In fact, it is ETFs and RWAs.

Crypto industry has a multi-level reservoir effect: BTC first takes over external liquidity, and it turns out that ETH continues to bear overflow liquidity, but this round is different. BTC has an ecosystem, so BTCFi is very Great opportunities to take over the liquidity of BTC overflow.

BTC ecological direction is mainly to release the liquidity of BTC, and a key problem needs to be solved: how to safely make BTC Cross-chain? Or not cross-chain, map to other chains by locking the bin.

BTC is the most consensus and the most secure asset, and it is worth doing around BTC A financial system.

The next question needs to be considered: Where is BTCFi built?

One ​​layer is used to issue assets and second layer is used to apply, so BTC Layer2 still has it Opportunity.

BTC Layer2's three technical solutions: state channel, side chain, and Rollup.

The most orthodox Layer2 is the Lightning Network, which is superimposed on the ability of Taproot Assets, which is very suitable for issuing stablecoins and has payment scenarios.

Wanlian Internet: Taking Ethereum as a guide, solve the problem of liquidity split in multiple chains in advance.

Which one can come out?

In addition to technological innovation, good projects generally meet three characteristics: strong product iteration ability, strong marketing ability and rich-making effect.

4. Will Bitcoin have new narrative opportunities emerge in the future?

Bitcoin is now called "digital gold". I can summarize the narrative of the future with one concept: "the digital gold that relies on life".

BTC If you just lie there, like gold in a bank vault, then BTC's advantages and potential are not fully utilized. It's a pity.

Especially After Trump really takes BTC as a strategic reserve, BTC will also become a capital reserve for many companies.

The more important thing at this time is to combine BTCFi, Turn BTC into an interest-generating asset (similar to ETH).

In traditional financial markets, interest-generating assets account for more than 90% of total assets, so we can see the importance of interest-generating assets to the financial market.

For example, after Ethereum switched from the PoW mechanism to the PoS mechanism, Ethereum can obtain pledge income due to the pledge scenario, making Ethereum a profit, which has led to a series of financial gameplay in the Ethereum ecosystem. < /p>

The Ethereum ecosystem has seen a series of innovative financial products such as liquidity pledge, re-pled, and liquidity re-pled, attracting more liquidity to enter this ecosystem , with a strong wealth effect.

The Bitcoin ecosystem also needs such interest-generating assets as the underlying assets, so that more new ways of playing can emerge and accelerate the vitality of the ecosystem.

Now This important proposition needs to be solved: How to turn Bitcoin into an interest-generating asset?

Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv are all valuable attempts. p>

Imagine a scenario where Lightning Network is a payment network, paying only BTC interest or future expected returns, and the principal has not moved. This is quite For the time value and future benefits of using BTC.

This is a very valuable and worth looking forward to.

5. Let's summarize

(1) AboutBTC's trend in 2025: We only look at the cycle and trends. This cycle started early, and BTC's high point may appear around the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around US$150,000.

(2) Opportunities for the BTC ecosystem: BTCFi and BTC Layer2. BTCFi will first undertake the liquidity of BTC overflow, and BTCFi is built on BTC Layer2.

(3) The future narrative of BTC: digital gold that generates livelihood. The next narrative of BTC is to become an interest-bearing asset. At present, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv have done a lot. A valuable and relatively successful attempt.

Bitcoin, at most sets of you, but not cut you.

If you want to be a diamond player, be a diamond player for Bitcoin.