Author: Luke, Mars Finance

Today, the price of $BAN experienced a drastic crash, plunging more than 38% in just a few hours. This plunge not only shocked investors, but also revealed the deep-seated control methods behind the market. From the carefully planned trading path of the dealer to the sudden changes in the exchange, the plunge of $BAN is undoubtedly a typical market manipulation event. This article will deeply analyze the reasons behind the $BAN crash and explore how dealers can take advantage of market mechanism loopholes to conduct accurate double harvests through the contract market.

Highly concentrated chips: the innate gene of the control game

According to the monitoring of on-chain data platform GMGN and analyst @Web3Tinkle, $BAN's chips are extremely concentrated feature. The dealer currently holds about 75% of the circulation, and this centralized control structure makes the dealer almost dominant in the market. By investing just $2 million, the dealer was able to push $BAN's market value from $20 million to $200 million, and the leverage effect was jaw-dropping. Such a market layout means that the dealer has enough ability to manipulate market trends without investing a lot of money.

Recalling the historical operations of the project party, the market popularity in November last year made $BAN a In order to focus on the focus, during this period, the project party successfully cleaned up the chips, and the proportion of retail investors' positions was extremely low. This operation laid the groundwork for subsequent market manipulation. The dealer controlled almost all circulating chips, and the influence of retail investors was greatly weakened, laying hidden dangers for subsequent price fluctuations.

Fund rate movement: Death trap in the contract market

On the eve of $BAN's plunge, the fund rates of Binance and Bybit platforms experienced unprecedented abnormal fluctuations. This change is no accident, it reveals that the market is facing huge manipulation risks. Binance's capital rate once reached -2% every 4 hours, which means the daily cost of short positions is as high as 12%. The situation on Bybit platform is even more extreme, with a capital fee rate of -4% every 2 hours, which is equivalent to the daily holding cost of shorts soaring to 48%.

These extreme data are hidden several red flags. First, the short positions in the market have increased sharply, but the prices have risen in reverse, causing a huge cognitive divergence between long and short. Short positions have increased, but However, the market price did not fall, but continued to rise, forming a serious misalignment of the market signal. Secondly, Binance adjusted the fund settlement cycle to shorten it from 4 hours to 2 hours, which means that the short position cost almost doubled , further exacerbated the pressure on short sellers. Finally, the extreme negative fees attracted a large number of retail longs to enter the market. They entered the market with the mentality of "eating interest", forming an irrational FOMO sentiment, which undoubtedly provides the dealer with Opportunity to harvest.

The full path of dealer trading: Double kill harvest textbook

The plunge in $BAN is not an accidental market fluctuation, but the result of the dealer's careful layout. Judging from the operation path of the dealer, the entire trading process can be divided into several stages, reflecting how the dealer completes the double harvest through market manipulation.

In the first phase, the dealer pushed the price up through extremely small funds in the spot market, pushing the price of $BAN from 0.14 USDT to 0.2 USDT, creating An illusion of technological breakthrough. This process of pulling the market successfully attracted a large number of short positions to increase positions, and also triggered arbitrage behavior of long positions. The market's position volume soared rapidly, accumulating huge market energy for the subsequent operations of the market makers.

When entering the second stage, the dealer suddenly put great pressure on the shorts by adjusting the capital rate settlement cycle. This adjustment of Binance platform doubled the holding costs of short sellers, quickly hitting short sellers' confidence. At the same time, the bulls mistakenly thought that this move represents good news and began to accelerate entry and takeover, which undoubtedly aggravated the market's buying sentiment.

In the final harvesting stage, the dealer sold most of the control chips through the spot market, and directly This leads to the collapse of market prices. At the same time, in the contract market, the dealer closed the long positions on the one hand, and began to open short positions on the other hand, and the two-way operation successfully captured the market's explosive energy. During this process, the dealer also used the difference in fund rate between different platforms to conduct arbitrage operations, providing hedging protection for his funds through the high negative rates of Bybit platform.

In-chain evidence: The deep logic of "suicide" selling of large investors

After the plunge, the on-chain data showed that five addresses belonging to the same entity were to Gate.io Recharged 10.21 million $BAN, worth about 31$50,000. This operation undoubtedly reveals the deep intentions of the dealer. These addresses were withdrawn at a price of 0.133 USDT two days ago, but are now selling at a loss at a price of 0.1016 USDT, showing the "suicide" cuts of these giant whales. This operation not only highlights the dealer's flexible response under price control, but also exposes the traces of manipulation behind it.

It is worth noting that these recharge funds are likely to come from internal accounts of the exchange, and may This is to create the illusion of market liquidity through reverse operations and further mislead retail investors' investment decisions. At the same time, this behavior of large investors' "cutting their losses" has aggravated the market's panic, making retail investors more pessimistic about the market prospects, and causing more investors to sell their assets one after another.

Market Apocalypse: Structural Risks of the Crypto Market

From $BAN's plunge, we can get some profound market enlightenment. First of all, the survival rules of the control currency have quietly changed, and market value and chip concentration often exceed the impact of fundamentals. If investors still have the mentality of value investment, they are likely to be lost in these control currencies. On the contrary, the game thinking may be more suitable for these markets, and investors need to have more keen market insights.

Secondly, the double-edged sword effect of the derivatives market cannot be ignored. Mechanisms such as capital rates should be used to balance the long and short forces in the market, but under the clever manipulation of the dealer, these mechanisms have become their tools for reaping retail investors. For retail investors, understanding the rules of the derivatives market and operating with caution is the best strategy to deal with this kind of market manipulation.

Finally, the exchange's rule adjustments also exacerbated market volatility. The sudden adjustment of capital rates by the exchange and the opacity of the rules have made market sentiment more unstable. In the absence of effective supervision, the operations of exchanges and dealers may have a huge impact on the market. Therefore, when investors participate, in addition to paying attention to market fundamentals, they should also pay close attention to changes in the exchange.

Investor warning: When a currency simultaneously shows triple signals of "highly concentrated chips, extreme derivatives fees, and abnormal exchange rules", the market is essentially The transaction maker's harvest countdown has entered. This plunge in $BAN once again confirms this: in a crypto market that lacks effective supervision, controllers have the dual privileges of "creating rules" and "breaking rules", and retail investors must always be alert.