Because Solana's big market performance is outstanding in this round, many people believe that this bull market is Solana's bull market. Looking at Solana's development history in the past few years, whether it is the trend of joining Wall Street under DeFi Summer or the life-saving straw that still seized the Meme craze "Return of the King" after FTX went bankrupt and fell into trouble, these all make Everyone thinks Solana's fortune is too good.

However, giants like FTX can fall overnight, and Meme also has its own tides and tides. Recently, Meme has obviously shown signs of "retreat" and, together with The adjacent super large amount unlocking can be said to be a disaster. Solana's pressure doubles, has its "good luck" really been used up?

Recently, on-chain data showed that Solana's on-chain transaction volume has dropped rapidly since February, and the number of launches on Meme launches and other related platforms has dropped sharply. All the popular projects in Solana's ecological projects have fallen sharply, and various FUD sounds have begun to appear on social platforms.

The original Meme rose in the midst of calls for "anti-VC", "not taking over" and "fair launch". However, after the rise of the Meme craze, various institutions followed the trend Becoming a "big village" quickly occupied a favorable ecological niche. The crypto community quickly discovered that there was no continuous injection of funds and the Meme launched by fairly just seemed like a flash in the pan. Therefore, most people were put into the arms of various institutions and took them. the plate.

Immediately afterwards, the presidential currency, which represents the top celebrity, was born. The Trump family Token first quickly absorbed liquidity in the market, and then Milai Token hit another heavy blow when he appeared. Afterwards, people discovered that there was a trading team behind these celebrity projects, and some were even related to each other. Behind each hot-chasing project, there was an invisible hand controlling it. The encryption community suddenly felt that it was pressed to the ground and repeatedly rubbed. . Some KOLs bluntly said that our crypto community just wants to get out of the circle, not let celebrities outside the circle come in and withdraw money...

After all, Meme's craze and bubble The breakdown ultimately reveals the "evil" of human nature. The excessive speculation of greedy retail investors can never escape the fate of "taker", which has caused a huge blow to the Meme market, and has achieved rapid growth momentum due to the Meme craze. Solana is like a blow to the head of the ecology. The great relationship,it goes without saying.

This is still immersed in the sadness of the ebbing tide of Meme, and another desperate news came, "March 1 11.2 million SOLs will be unlocked every day. At first, people mistakenly thought that this was an unlock in the Token economic model plan. Usually, this type of unlocking is a planned small-scale unlocking, which has little impact on the market, but this large-scale unlocking is It is the second wave of blow brought by FTX after its bankruptcy. Simply put, these 11.2 million SOLs are part of the Tokens sold during the FTX liquidation process. These tokens set a certain lock-in period (Vesting Schedule) when trading, usually 1-3 years, and end in March 2025, so they enter the circulation market.

After FTX went bankrupt in November 2022, huge SOLs held by its affiliate Alameda Research became part of liquidated assets. It is estimated that FTX/Alameda initially held about 58 million SOLs, accounting for 10%-15% of Solana's total supply at that time. The bankrupt custodian (led by John J. Ray III) then sold the tokens to institutional investors at a discount. It is reported that those who bought these tokens at that time included Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Figure Markets and other institutions. Based on the information on X and on-chain data (such as Lookonchain tracking), the market estimates that these tokens will be sold at about US$60-80 each (30-40% of the current market price).

Because the 11.2 million SOLs that are about to be unlocked are purchased at a discount at low cost, the market expects that if no one takes over the market and digests them quickly, it is likely to be given to SOL after unlocking. This has brought huge selling pressure, and the current pressure has been given to the current market price and the Solana ecological community.

So has the good luck really been used up in Solana, which has never been singular? It doesn't seem to be that the Solana spot ETF that is expected to be passed this year or a series of friendly encryptions by Trump can be regarded as a continuation of Solana's good luck.

Solana spot that may be passed as early as June this yearETFs are highly expected. Currently, on well-known prediction platforms, the probability of Solana ETF passing in 2025 is 84%, while the probability of passing before June 31 is 38%. Judging from the performance of the two spot ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the current position value of Bitcoin spot ETF is more than US$110 billion, while the position value of Ethereum spot ETF is more than US$10 billion. Judging from the institutional support rate of Solana, at least it will also be With billions of dollars inflows, it can naturally easily cover the 11.2 million unlocked negative news. But the problem is that unlocking is near, and ETF passes for at least a few months.

Trump's series of friendly words are actually gradually being implemented Among them, this is a friendly regulatory environment belonging to the entire crypto industry. Thanks to the accelerated catalysis of the Meme boom, the Solana ecosystem has become remarkable. At the beginning of 2025, the transaction volume of Solana's on-chain DEX once exceeded Ethereum, which successfully passed the stress test, and it has strong users and activity. momentum.

In addition, Solana's developer community is growing quite rapidly, and the iterative upgrade of Solana's future roadmap plan will improve existing technology solutions. With various shortcomings, its ecosystem continues to attract more and more attention, and some top institutions such as Paypal and Franklin Templeton have also joined in and adopted them.

Whether the Meme craze is getting colder or the large amount of unlocking is actually short-term "pain" and is very common in the field of encryption. Solana cannot be determined by this. It fell down, not to mention that it encountered the wind of friendly crypto supervision when its ecological development momentum was good, which was even more beneficial as the number one public chain founded in the United States. As for the longer-term future, wait for more tests brought by time.