Source: Blockchain Knight

According to the latest "Bitfinex Alpha" report, if BTC repeats the price trend during the 2017 bull run, it may reach $290,000 by early 2026 peak.

This forecast is based on historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators during bull market cycles.

Following the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023, rising by 155.5%.

This momentum has continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, with year-to-date gains reaching 143%.

The current bull market cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, thanks to the expectation of the BTC halving event in 2024. Historically, the BTC halving event occurred before the bull market year.

In addition, the report also attributed the strength of this cycle to the pressure of institutional buying and the launch of the US spot BTC ETF. These factors provided stable demand and limited the size and duration of the market correction.

In the 2017 cycle, BTC’s maximum correction was 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, BTC’s decline was 27.1%.

In the current cycle, BTC corrections have been more controlled due to increasing institutional interest, further enhancing market stability.

The BTC cycle top indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC price peaks and has historically marked cycle highs very accurately.

This indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).

In previous cycles, BTC has typically reached a significant price peak when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMAx2.

The report emphasizes that if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats, this crossover may occur as early as June 29, 2025; if the cycle is extended in 2017, it may occur as late as January 2026. January 28th.

Based on historical performance, BTC’s peak during the bull market run was significantly higher than its moving average.

In 2017, BTC was trading at three times its moving average peak. However, as BTC matures, returns are diminishing, suggesting more conservative price predictions.

According to Bitfinex’s predictions, if BTC follows the trajectory of 2021, its price may be 40% higher than the moving average, reaching around $339,000.

However, given the lackluster returns, BTC could trade 15% to 20% above the moving average, peaking at $160,000 to $200,000 by mid-2025.

WithMeanwhile, if a repeat of the 2017 cycle is less likely, BTC could peak at around $290,000 in early 2026.

While historical indicators suggest the most likely scenario is for BTC to peak between $160,000 and $290,000, the path to these heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption and broader macroeconomic conditions.