Author: Daii Source: mirror

I have always said that Ethereum is now the largest value depression for cryptocurrencies .

How deep is this depression? Just look at its market share comparison with Bitcoin.

From the picture above, we can see that the market share of Bitcoin has reached 60%. , while Ethereum is only 10%, setting a new low in nearly four years.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have given a table, and you may be able to get a general idea.

First of all, the current number of ETH has not increased significantly, but has increased from 120 million to With less than 121 million, the inflation rate is less than 1%, far lower than Solana's 4.78%.

The problem may be in item 8 (see the picture above), and the gas fee dropped by 54%. There are two main reasons:

One ​​is that Ethereum's own L2 divert part;

The other is the "shitcoin" craze, and Ethereum has not caught up.

It should be noted that using "shit coins" instead of "meme coins" is because these coins are purely tools for cutting leeks, with PePe, Doge, SHIB These traditional meme coins are essentially different, and they are called "shit coins" that can keep more people away from them.

Because the negative news brought to Solana by "shit coins", it was first Trump and his wife, and now Argentine President Mile. This also leads people to re-examine where Solana’s core values ​​lie.

What is certain is that the traffic brought to Solana by "Shit Coin" is only temporary, and Solana is currently being retaliated by "Shit Coin". This is anotherThe topic will be discussed separately the next day.

Solana's inherent decentralization defect is destined to be the stage for big capital. On the contrary, decentralization is the advantage of Ethereum, which is reflected in item 5 of the figure above. Even though the price of ETH has not been able to rise, TVL, which is priced in ETH, has been rising, and has also risen a lot, at 25%, which is really rare.

The following TVL distribution map is a true portrayal of the status of Ethereum's leading decentralized finance. Currently, Ethereum’s TVL is 7 times that of Solana.

Decentralization is the background color of Ethereum and can take off capital. So, why do you say that Ethereum is about to take off "now"?

’s article on Wednesday, "430 million capital outflows! "The Crisis and Opportunity of Bitcoin", I talked about the 430 million yuan flowing out of Bitcoin ETP. There is no time to explain the details of Ethereum ETP capital inflow, as shown in the box below.

On the surface, Ethereum also leaked 7 million last week, only Solana and XRP Because ETF applications may be affected by SEC approval, there are 8.9 million and 8.5 million inflows respectively (see the red circle above).

However, if you compare Ethereum's inflows this month and this year, you will find that more institutions' smart money is accelerating into Ethereum ETP.

The United States does not have Solana's ETP, considering that the current crypto ETP accounts for 75% of the shares. So the above data of Solana only represents the attitude of 25% market share. Let's convert Solana's inflows since this month and this year into a market attitude.

Did you find it? After conversion, Ethereum's inflow since this month is still Solana is 9.6 times this yearThe inflow is 4.5 times that of Solana.

It is obvious that more smart money is flowing to Ethereum. For possible reasons, I said in "Learn from Good Models for Institutions", Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Ethereum ETF by 2000% in the fourth quarter of last year. The power of role models is huge.

It seems that everything is ready, so where is the east wind?

Dongfeng has two, one is that the staking of Ethereum ETF was approved by the SEC, and the other is that Ethereum 2025 is upgraded and launched.

The first gust of wind: the regulation of pledged ETFs breaks the ice

Cboe BZX Exchange has already reached the SEC A proposal was submitted to allow 21Shares Core Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) to be staking on Ethereum. Once approved, ETH ETFs will also become an asset class that can generate interest, which may trigger an investment boom in ETH ETFs. Immediately afterwards, the New York Stock Exchange also made a request to pledge Grayscale Ethereum ETFs. Once passed, it means that traditional investors can not only hold ETH, but also obtain an annualized return of 3.5%-5% through pledge. It is estimated that if the SEC approves such ETFs, Ethereum's annual pledge income may exceed US$5 billion, becoming a "magnet" that attracts traditional funds. More importantly, the opening of the staking function will realize the leap of Ethereum ETFs to "interest-generating assets", and completely rewrite its valuation logic - pledged ETFs may open a trillion-dollar market for ETH.

Second Gust: Pectra Upgrade and Reshape the Technical Base

If ETF staking is open The key to the capital floodgate, then the Pectra upgrade in April 2025 is the engine of Ethereum's self-revolution. This upgrade includes three killer weapons:

EIP-3074: allows users to merge multiple transactions into one operation, and a third party pays a Gas fee. This improvement is directly targeting Ethereum's "user experience problem" and is expected to reduce the interaction cost of ordinary users by more than 50%. For example, the project party can be like ""The handling fee is paid for users on their behalf, completely eliminating the threshold for newcomers to enter DeFi.

EIP-7251: Increases the stake limit of a single verification node from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. This change directly benefits institutions - pledged service providers like Lido, which can reduce the number of nodes by 98%, reduce operation and maintenance costs while increasing network speed. Analysts estimate the move could attract more than $20 billion in new pledged funds.

ERC-7683 and 7841: The unification of cross-chain standards makes the asset flow between Ethereum L2 as smooth as "high-speed rail transfer". Uniswap and Across Protocol have built a cross-chain order system based on this standard, with transaction failure rate expected to drop by 70%, and liquidity pool depth will increase by more than 3 times.

If there are still variables in the first gust of east wind, then it is only a matter of time before the second gust of east wind arrives.

Ethereum's long-term price sluggishness has made more people forget its many advantages.

As the world's first programmable blockchain, Ethereum has a strong network effect and a huge developer community, with its smart contract functions and decentralized applications. The platform provides fertile ground for countless innovative projects. As more large institutions flow into Ethereum ETP, the value of Ethereum will be rediscovered.

So are you ready to do a big fight? Let's wait, show you a picture.

When I wrote this article, the price of ETH was 2702, and once the price did not rise Reverse decline, around 256.65, more than 800 million positions will be liquidated. Don’t forget that the current ETH price is still subject to centralized exchanges, and most centralized exchanges lack supervision. Before Ethereum takes off, it is not difficult to take the time to insert a "needle" and draw a "U" to harvest it. If you still have questions about this, if you have time to read "The big rise is coming soon?" Be careful of your bad hands! 》.

Leverage can amplify returns and accelerate destruction - controlling risks and keeping the principal is the way to survive.