An overseas player recently exposed his recent experience online:

He said this time All lost in the transaction of LIBRA tokens issued by the Argentine president. He has reaped a lot of rewards from the meme coin in front to the Trump coin a while ago, but all of this has been cleared on LIBRA.

In order to make up for this situation, he is planning to sell off his offline physical assets and then go to the chain to get back everything he has lost.

I have read too many such stories and have shared them with you many times in past articles. But this time I saw such a story, my thoughts changed a little. It’s not that the conclusion has changed, but that the way of thinking has changed a little. Now I have a more rational framework for this type of problem.

During the Spring Festival, I saw a very interesting video, which used the large number theorem and expected value regression to explain many interesting phenomena in casinos.

For example, why will gamblers lose if they continue to play for a long time?

Why are the most inconspicuous slot machines in many casinos the most profitable and stable money-making machines in casinos?

Although I am a science student, probability statistics are also a compulsory course when studying, I use such simple and easy-to-understand words to explain these phenomena in the casino This is the first time I have seen such a thorough case.

So today I will share with you the mystery.

Let's first look at an example of tossing a coin.

We all know that the expected probability of throwing a coin to the front is 50%. But if we operate in different ways, we will see results that are very different from what we imagined.

If we throw a coin twice in a row, we will find that many people can throw the front twice in a row. In this case, many people will habitually believe that the third time will still throw the front.

If we throw this coin 4 times in a row, the person who can throw the front four times in a row will beLess than that. In this case, there are fewer people who think that the fifth throw will still throw the front.

If we throw this coin 6 times, 8 times, 10 times, 100 times in a row, the number of people who can throw the front continuously will be drastically reduced, and habitual There will be a sharp drop in the number of people who think they can still throw the positive out next time.

As the number of times we tossed coins more and more, we finally found that the probability of throwing the front is basically stable at 50%, rather than like throwing 2 times , the probability that you see when you throw 4 times can sometimes reach 100%.

This is the large number theorem (the number of times the coin is tossed more and more) and expected value regression (the probability of positive occurrence regression to 50%) are at work.

Apply this principle to a casino and we will find some interesting phenomena:

If a gambler only plays once and no longer participates in the subsequent game, even if the gambler has only 10% chance of winning in this gamble, the dealer's final advantage is not very obvious, or in other words, the gambler's final disadvantage is not Too obvious.

But if a gambler continues to play unlimitedly, even if the gambler has a 49% chance of winning in this gamble, the dealer's final advantage will be very obvious. In the end, all the pupils will lose.

Based on this principle, the casino will try to design some games when designing gameplay, even if the gambler's expectations of winning are higher (as long as it is not higher than the casino), We must find ways to make the gamblers play endlessly.

Slot machines are the best representative. The bets are small in each game, and you don’t feel sorry for losing, and you can win from time to time, so the gambler often sits on the machine and can’t get up. As long as you can't get up, losing all your money will be basically a destined ending.

Switch to the meme coins in the crypto ecosystem.

The meme coins in this round of market have developed more and more touching stories to tell, basically only the game of emotions and behind them trading.

In such games, retail investors obviously do not have an advantage.

If you just take part in such a project asIt doesn’t matter how happy you play the game.

But if you take part in such a game as a long-term profit method, and if you are addicted to it and play for a long time, you can still win from time to time, even if you don’t lose everything, The final outcome must be like playing a slot machine, boiling a frog in warm water, and the assets will eventually be cleared.