Author: Westie Source: X, @WestieCapital Translation: Shan Oppa, Golden Finance

Let's chat Talk about memecoin cycle. Forget their practicality, forget their long-term vision, and even forget coherent narratives. The essence of this cycle is not about these things.

It has only one core goal: to seize early opportunities.

Spark: The ETF boom and the revival of Solana

This spark is not just the general momentum of the market. It's more specific. At the end of 2023, Bitcoin ETF applications imply that institutional funds will enter the cryptocurrency market. Solana made a strong return after the FTX crash. It all became the tinder – a story of regaining legitimacy and resurrection.

The traditional altcoins feel outdated. Many projects are burdened by the bear market. Projects backed by venture capital, owning roadmaps and white papers, usually valuations look more like…well-designed exit strategies than exciting innovations.

memecoin offers different options: original, unfiltered, and fun. Currency for anti-risk capital. There is no white paper, and usually no official website. There is only one emoticon, one transaction code and one release. Its appeal lies in simplicity and a sense of risk. Memecoin became the ultimate "high risk test", especially because traditional altcoins look too predictable.

If Bitcoin could rise twice as much as the ETF boom and Solana was reborn from the ashes, perhaps a Dogecoin with no purpose could rise 100 times. This is the spark: ETF optimism, Solana’s revival, boredom with venture capital-backed altcoins.

BONK: I tasted the "early" for the first time

Then, BONK came.

BONK is not complicated and has no profound meme connotation. But it was the first to capture this energy. People see fluctuations, gains, and gradually form a basic understanding: something is happening. This is different. This is very fast.

Initially, "early" was not a conscious goal. More like, “It's very unstable, maybe smallA small bet. "But BONK's market - after the outbreak and then experienced predictable fluctuations, it began to subtly define the game.

Elemental Transformation: Absurdity emerged from a limited meme pool

The meta-game has changed. The cryptocurrency brain began to understand: "Memecoin is a game. The goal of the game is to find the next BONK, but better. ”

"Better" does not mean technology or team. "Better" means higher viral spread. How to do it? In this early stage Memecoin's metagame is still in its infancy, with unexpectedly limited options for differentiation. There are no thousands of complex strategies or narratives to choose from. In fact, the ready-made meme pool on the internet is itself small. Not choosing from thousands of options, but choosing from a limited pool that resonates with you intuitively.

and in this What is the most prominent among limited choices? Absurd.

In this context, "better" becomes synonymous with "more absurd". Because in this In the immature memecoin market, absurdity is a powerful signal. It can catch the eye and is naturally shareable. More importantly, when the market is still exploring what a "good" memecoin is, a sense of humor and Instant, primitive laughter became a powerful selection mechanism.

So Dogwifhat (WIF) was born.

"Wif hat", a misspelled, meaningless image of Shiba Inu in a hat. The pinnacle of the absurdity of the internet. For many, the immediate reaction is - laugh. It's funny. And In this sense of humor, this absurdity, there is a signal:

"This is very new. This is very fresh. Is this...the early stage? ”

The game becomes intuitive. It is not just finding a memecoin, but finding the memecoin that can spread quickly before it becomes popular on a large scale. Capture the spirit of the times , Internet jokes, fleeting absurdity. In these early days, in that limited meme pool, the most ridiculous currency that makes people laugh and the most ridiculous naturally stood out.

To find that coin, you must be early.

Memescope: Optimize speed and control

Quick iteration of metagames. "Early" does not just refer to the time point after the issuance of coins. Too late. The real "early" is before the issuance of coins. Before the masses have poured in, before the speculation has begun, and before the prices have soared.

So, tools like Photon and "memescope" came into being. The game becomes tactical. Traders devote themselves to memescope - Photon's memecoin new coin launch page. The Yuan game is: refresh memescope all day long, quickly buy new online currencies, and become the first buyer. Pure "early" optimization - speed, responsiveness, staring at the screen all day.

"Memescope Metagame" still looks like some kind of democratized gameplay--anyone with tools and time can participate. But beneath the surface, a darker dynamic begins to emerge: the rise of **"insiders"**, who are creating memecoin and manipulating indicators that memescope traders rely on.

These currencies are not always spontaneous, grassroots movement. More and more memecoins are carefully designed for profit. These "insiders" will:

•Create memecoin out of thin air: usually without real communities or organic kinetic energy as the basis.

•Manipulate data: artificially raise the data on the chain, create false social media popularity, and manipulate the "trend" ranking system to make the currency look more realistic More popular.

• Directly targeting trader resources: Knowing that memescope and similar tools have become the core of memecoin trading, they specially designed manipulation to utilize these platforms.

•Hot market makers: Create an illusion of real trading volume when it was first launched, making the new currency look instantly active and attractive on the chart.

•Working with KOL (key opinion leaders): pay influencers to promote the coins they make, create social verification, and promote early FOMO (fear of missing outings ).

•Deploy the "Responder" Twitter Legion: Establish a network of bots or paid accounts thatThe only purpose is to reply to large crypto accounts, flood the information space, and create fake popularity about their tokens.

memescope traders truly think they are playing "early" games, even though they are actually always behind those who really capture the most value.

The key elements of these two memecoin games—absurdity became the driver of virality, and "insiders" realizing "early" games and manipulating them Exit liquidity – Now ready to enter the final "Boss level".

Fartcoin: Pursuing public attention and ultimate absurdity

For those who actively try to create the "next" WIF’s people—the next memecoin that can achieve escape speed—a crucial understanding gradually emerges: to get the public to buy your memecoin, you must seize their fleeting attention. In the memecoin field, attention is not achieved through complex narratives or technical commitments, but through spectacular scenes that cannot be ignored. For the pursuit of "early" it's now fully accepted: it's not just about speed, or even absurdity, but about strategically creating extreme absurdity as the ultimate attention-grabbing mechanism.

At this time, Fartcoin came on stage.

Fartcoin. Imagine memecoin creators seeking mass adoption. What can capture the attention better than launching a token called "Fartcoin"? It is not only absurd, but even a universal and instantaneous absurdity. The name itself is a necessary conversation starter, a clickbait title, waiting to happen. It seems to have been designed with laser precision to create a sensational news that can penetrate the noise of the Internet: "Look at these stupid things, people are actually investing money!"

Fartcoin has become the ultimate experiment of the attention economy in the memecoin world. It is not just another token launch; it is a deliberate, almost cynical attempt to use absurdity to attract attention to the masses. It emerges as a stark and possibly hilarious proof of concept: In memecoin games, especially in the pursuit of true “escape speed” and mainstream adoption, ultimate absurdity is more than just an ideal trait, it is the core marketing Strategy,The purest and most provocative form after refining.

Is there a more ridiculous memecoin than Fartcoin?

Internal Games and Trump Ceiling

Next, another more fundamental understanding gradually emerged in the manipulation strategy that has emerged in the era of "memescope": pure absurdity The age of animal memecoin, despite initially explosive growth, has become unsustainable. The market has become smarter.

meta requires a new entry angle, a layer of legality. At this time, we see the rise of "substantive" memes - although these tokens are still memetic in nature, they can defend themselves with a thin layer of seemingly reasonable pseudo-denial. So, the meta of AI coins appeared. Suddenly, buying memecoin is not just about buying a dog with a hat, but about "investment" on the future of artificial intelligence! This provides a reason for buying, although this reason is fragile and goes beyond pure absurdity.

But behind this transformation of theme decoration, the core mechanisms of the game and the roles of insiders remain unchanged. Information asymmetry is still the key. Those insider groups have simply adapted to this new meta, using their early access to information to continue to take advantage of this advantage. They knew about the launch of AI coins before anyone and continued to take advantage of this advantage.

This evolution eventually gave birth to the meta of celebrity memecoin. Insiders realize that the ultimate way to create viral launches and ensure exit liquidity is to work with celebrities – who often have a huge influence but have limited understanding of cryptocurrencies and become the front desk for these internal operations. More importantly, these insiders are still behind the scenes, often suggesting that they are just "better traders", subtly (or less subtly) suggesting that their excess returns are a manifestation of skills rather than information advantages, further Intensified the frustration of the average participant, who are increasingly excluded from the "early" game.

"Internal Game" is fully displayed in the most cynical and transparent form, covering:

•Be the initiator. Create tokens, control narratives, and create viral transmission with extreme absurdity or a substantial garb. The ultimate "early" and the ultimate viral control.

•Be an insider. Look for absurd or seemingly substantial token promoters, enter these tokens early and participate before they arrive on crypto Twitter. Information asymmetry about viral/substantive potential is the advantage.

•Be an influencer. Build a fan base as a channel to enter absurdly viral or seemingly substantial tokens early, and then …You know. Amplify selected narratives, drive headlines, ensure exit liquidity.

In this turn, create viral absurdity and control distribution After the narrative trend became significant, Fartcoin demonstrated the primitive power of extreme absurdity, followed by the emergence of Trump Coin.

Trump Coin. Earth On the biggest and most ridiculous memecoin? Suddenly, even creating absurdity becomes less important. How to transcend Trump's absurdity and create something with more news potential? Nearly impossible.

Imagine how you react as a memecoin trader when Trump coins are launched. Anyone who follows can see this is an internal issuance. 80% of the tokens Supply is clearly locked to the insiders. On-chain data shouted loudly about token snipers and pre-issued access. It shouldn't make any sense, but it doesn't matter. It's Trump. The president-elect of the United States. All Memecoin in memecoin. Ultimate Celebrity Coin. Of course you will buy it. It feels like a new paradigm. The internal game is obvious, but it doesn't matter to Trump. It's too big to ignore. p>

Then it was the launch of MELANIA.

At that time, the whole atmosphere seemed to have been taken away. In the club The people suddenly became awake. The internal game of Trump coins is so obvious, and the emergence of Melania coins made all this completely and inevitably exposed. The mechanism is the same, and the cash grab becomes more transparent. The difference is What? For Trump, the scale of memecoin has briefly surpassed this cynicism, and there is nothing that can surpass the Melania.

The internal game that has been revealed, although people chose not to care before, after the emergence of Melania, people finally care. The emperor was not wearing clothes. This cycle broke.

Trump currency is not just the pinnacle of memecoin;Another level of final case: the clearest example of internal games reaching their peak. It is not just a memecoin, it is a cultural force, launched with a halo of internal access and destined to succeed.

Is there any more transparent and larger internal game than Trump and Melania?

The Echo of 2021: The "early" cycle of NFT

The entire memecoin cycle... does it make you feel a little familiar? Back in 2021, that NFT boom.

What was the spark at that time? The rise of ETH based on DeFi summer. NFT has emerged as the "beta play" of ETH and has become an investment with higher risks and higher returns.

meta quickly condensed on the PFP project. "Community" became a buzzword, but in reality, the game is looking for the next "Bored Ape", the project that will skyrocket and gain cultural recognition.

Just like memecoin, people realize that games are "early". But in the NFT field, "early" means fighting for a whitelist. Discord check-in, Twitter interaction, and do endless tasks - the whitelist competition has become the NFT memescope refresh, and has become a relentless pursuit of pre-issuance access.

"Early" optimization has been further upgraded. People realize that the first ones that can be involved are creators. Soon, celebrities began to join in.

You see Steph Curry and Jimmy Fallon showing seven-digit JPEGs, while Logan Paul blatantly cheating his fans. Who is next? The NFT field also seems to have reached its peak of celebrity-driven, a meta-touch fatigue point.

When talking about the transformation of cycles... NELK, once represented the peak of the celebrity NFT boom in 2021, has just launched its own memecoin-Fullsend. If this is not a signal yet, what else can it be?

These similarities are obvious. Different asset classes, but the same underlying game: the unremitting pursuit of "early" and ultimately towards self-consuming. At some point, the game has no room for development; you need to completely reset the gameplay.

Twilight and the inevitable reset

At the end of the memecoin cycle, and the aftermath of the NFT frenzy echoing, we see coins like LIBRA As the emergence of this, people seem to be putting their entire portfolio into it, desperately hoping to recapture the magic of TRUMP trading. This is a classic sign of what George Soros calls "Twilight"—a phase in the market cycle. As Soros observed, this is a stage where “people continue to participate in the game, even though they no longer believe it.” Belief in the “early” magic is weakening, but the ingrained habit of chasing the rise of memecoin remains.

Soros warned, "There will eventually be a crossing point or turning point, the trend will begin to decline, and the bias will reverse, resulting in a catastrophic acceleration decline (8), It's often called a crash. ”

So, you have to ask yourself: Is there any variation of this metagame that can continue? Is there any more level of this game?

Is there any meme that is more ridiculous than Fartcoin? Is there any insider game that is bigger and more transparent than TRUMP and MELANIA coins?

It probably isn't there. At least there is no more in this cycle.

The memecoin cycle, defined by the "early" pursuit, may have come to an end. It is driven by hype, absurdity and "early" commitment. But like all hype cycles, it is essentially self-consuming. As the mechanism becomes clear, the illusion gradually disappears, and the "early" pursuit begins to self-destruct.

However, the "early" impulse of humanity still exists. It has been deeply rooted in crypto psychology.

This memecoin cycle may have ended, but that desire still exists. This game is likely to return with new rules, new ridiculousness, new players, and they may still desire...you guessed it...early.

Friends, stay safe.