Analyst: The Fed may signal that it will pause interest rate cuts in early 2025
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2024-12-14 22:32 9,333
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Golden Finance reported that analyst Megan Leonhardt said that despite the failure to make progress in curbing inflation in November, federal funds futures show that the possibility of Fed policymakers cutting the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points is almost 100%. The justification for a rate cut may depend on Fed officials' desire to keep the benchmark rate in line with current economic conditions, as inflation has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak and a previously tight labor market is normalizing. But don’t be surprised if next week’s rate cut is accompanied by forward guidance from Powell, suggesting the Fed will seek to pause rate cuts early in the year. Not only does the Fed have to keep inflation under control, but many fiscal policy outcomes in the coming year may change the direction of inflation. Additionally, there do exist pockets of weakness in the labor market that deserve a closer look. All of this creates a directional challenge for the Fed in the coming months, with policymakers likely to avoid taking action with alarming speed. (Golden Ten)