Author: Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEck; Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst at VanEck Digital Assets; Compiled by: 0xjs@金财经

Before we start predicting 2025, let’s take a moment to review VanEck’s predictions for 2025 Forecast results for 2024. Out of 15 predictions made for December 2023, we gave ourselves an 8.5/15 rating. A .566 slugging percentage might not be perfect, but it’s good enough to keep us going. With Bitcoin topping $100,000 and Ethereum topping $4,000, even some of our missteps were part of a memorable year.

2024 Crypto Forecast Review

1. Spot BTC ETP debuts – (1 point)

2. Bitcoin halving progresses smoothly – (1 point)

3. Bitcoin hit a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024 - (1 point)

4. Ethereum still ranks second after Bitcoin - (1 point)

< p>5, L2 Dominate Ethereum activities (but L2 TVL is still lower than Ethereum) – (0.5 points)

6. Stablecoin market value reaches record high – (1 point)

7. Decentralization The spot trading volume of the exchange reached a record share - (1 point)

8. SOL performed better than ETH - (1 point) 9. DePIN network adoption rate continues to grow - (1 points)

Now, let’s get down to business: VanEck’s cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.

Top Ten Cryptocurrency Forecasts in 2025

1. The cryptocurrency bull market reached a mid-term peak in the first quarter and hit a new high in the fourth quarter

2. The United States increases cryptocurrency through strategic reserves and Embrace Bitcoin through adoption

3. Tokenized securities worth more than $50 billion

4. Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches $300 billion

5 , the on-chain activities of AI agents exceed 1 million agents

6. The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin layer 2 reaches 100,000 BTC

7. The Ethereum blob space generates US$1 billion in fees

8. DeFi hits a record high, DEX trading volume reaches US$4 trillion, TVL reaches US$200 billion

9. NFT The market recovered, with transaction volume reaching US$30 billion

10. DApp tokens narrowed the performance gap with L1 tokens

1. The cryptocurrency bull market reached its mid-term peak in the first quarter, and in the fourth New quarterly highs

We think the crypto bull market will continue through 2025 years and reaches its first peak in the first quarter. At the first peak of the cycle, we forecast a Bitcoin price of around $180,000 and an Ethereum price of over $6,000. Other well-known projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), may exceed $500 and $10 respectively.

After the first peak, we expect BTC to see a 30% retracement, with altcoins facing significant losses of up to 60% as the market consolidates over the summer. However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with the major coin regaining momentum and regaining its previous all-time highs by the end of the year. To tell when the market is nearing a top, we are monitoring the following key signals:

Sustained high funding rates: When traders borrow funds to bet on rising BTC prices, they are willing to pay for three months or more Funding rates exceeding 10% indicate excessive speculation.

BTC futures funding rate for months >10% would be a bear market signal

Source: Glass Node, as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

Excessive unrealized profits: If the proportion of BTC holders with large paper gains (profit to cost ratio of 70% or higher) stabilizes, it is a sign that the market is hot.

Market cap is overvalued relative to realized value: When the MVRV (market cap to realized value) score exceeds 5, it indicates that the BTC price is well above the average purchase price, usually indicating an overheating situation.

Bitcoin dominance declines: If Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it would mean a speculative shift to riskier altcoins, which is typical late-cycle behavior.

Mainstream Speculation: A flood of text messages from crypto-illiterate friends asking about questionable projects is a reliable sign that a speculative frenzy is approaching the top.

Historically, these indicators have been reliable signals of market prosperity and will guide our outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle through 2025.

For example: a "Top Signal" text message from a friend I met five years ago.

2. The United States embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption

The election of Donald Trump has injected huge impetus into the cryptocurrency market with the appointment of crypto-friendly leaders Key positions include Vice President J.D. Vance, Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Mary Bessent, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Jelena McWilliams and Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr, among others. These appointments not only mark the end of anti-crypto sentiments, such as the systematic debanking of cryptocurrency companies and their founders, but also the beginning of a framework to position Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Cryptocurrency ETPs: Physical Creation, Staking, and New Spot Approvals

New SEC leadership (or possibly CFTC) will approve multiple new spot ETPs in the United States, including VanEck Solana product. Ethereum ETP functionality has been expanded to include staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs support physical creation/redemption. The repeal of SEC Rule SAB 121, whether by the U.S. SEC or Congress, will pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.

Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption: Federal, State, and Mining Expansion

We predict that by 2025, the Commonwealth or at least one U.S. state (likely Pennsylvania, Florida, or Deutsche Saskatchewan) will establish a Bitcoin reserve. From a federal perspective, this is more likely to be accomplished through an executive order utilizing the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. At the same time, states may act independently and view Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or as a tool to attract crypto investment and innovation.

In terms of Bitcoin mining, as the adoption rate of BRIC increases, the number of Bitcoins mined using resources is expected to reach double digits (currently seven). Russia's announcement of its intention to settle international trade in cryptocurrencies has given further impetus to this trend, underscoring Bitcoin's growing importance in global economic strategy.

Number of Bitcoins mined using resources

Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.

We expect this pro-Bitcoin stance to ripple throughout the U.S. crypto ecosystem. The U.S.-based share of global crypto developers will rise from 19% to 25% as regulatory clarity and incentives attract talent and companies back. At the same time, Bitcoin mining in the United States will boom, with the United States’ share of global mining computing power rising from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, driven by cheap energy and potentially favorable taxes. Together, these trends will solidify U.S. leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.

The Bitcoin computing power share of US listed companies will reach 35%

Source: JPMorgan Chase, VanEck Research provided on December 6, 2024 data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Enterprise BitCoin holdings expected to surge 43%

In terms of corporate adoption, we expect companies to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million BTC within the next year. This means that corporate Bitcoin holdings will grow at a staggering 43% over the next year.

Gold vs. Bitcoin Ownership: Room for Growth for Businesses and

Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.

3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion

Onchain securities to grow 61% in 2024

Source: RWA.xyz, Defillama, As of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Crypto is expected to improve the financial system by increasing efficiency, decentralization, and transparency. We believe 2025 will be the year that tokenized securities take off. Currently, there are approximately $12 billion worth of tokenized securities on the blockchain, the majority of which ($9.5 billion) are tokenized private credit securities listed on Figure’s semi-permissioned blockchain Provenance.

In the future, we see great potential for tokenized securities to be issued on public chains. We believe there are many incentives for investors to push for tokenized stocks or bonds to be issued exclusively on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like DTCC to enable tokenized assets to be seamlessly converted between public chains and private closed infrastructure. This dynamic will set standards for enforcing AML/KYC for on-chain investors. As a wild card, we predict Coinbase will take the unprecedented step of tokenizing COIN shares and deploying them on its BASE blockchain.

4. The daily settlement volume of stablecoins reaches 300 billion US dollars

The monthly stablecoin transfer volume (USD) in 2024 will increase by 180% year-on-year

Data source : Artemis XYZ as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stablecoins will transcend their niche status in cryptocurrency trading and become a core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoins to settle $300 billion in transfers per day, equivalent to 5% of DTCC’s current trading volume, compared with approximately $100 billion per day in November 2024. Big tech companies like Apple and Google and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) their adoption will redefine the economics of payments.

In addition to transactions, the remittance market will also experience explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the United States and Mexico could grow fivefold, from $80 million to $400 million per month. Why? Speed, cost savings, and the growing trust of millions of people who no longer view stablecoins as experiments but as practical tools. For all the talk about blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan horse.

5. The on-chain activities of AI agents exceed 1 million agents

The total revenue of AI agents in 5 weeks reached US$8.7 million

Source: Dune as of December 6, 2024 @jdhpyer. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

We believe that one of the most compelling narratives that will translate into significant traction in 2025 is that of AI agents. AI agents are specialized artificial intelligence bots that guide users to achieve outcomes such as "maximize revenue" or "stimulate X/Twitter engagement." The agent leverages its ability to autonomously change its strategy to optimize these outcomes. AI agents are typically fed data and trained to specialize in one area. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide the tools for anyone to create AI agents to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals allows non-experts to access decentralized AI agent contributors such as fine-tuners, dataset providers, and model developers so that non-technical people can create their own AI agents. The result will be an explosion in the number of agents that their creators can rent out to generate revenue.

The current focus of intelligent agent construction is DeFi, but we believe that AI agents will transcend financial activities. Agents can serve as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive partners/assistants in consumer applications. Agents have become important X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, who have 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. Therefore, we believe that the huge potential of agents will lead to the birth of more than 1 million new agents by 2025.

6. The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin L2 reaches 100,000 BTC

The total locked amount of Bitcoin L2 reaches 30,000 BTC, an increase of 600% so far in 2024

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Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

We are paying close attention to the emergence of Bitcoin L2 blockchains that have the potential to transform BitcoinHuge potential of the ecosystem. Scaling Bitcoin enables these L2 solutions to achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, thereby addressing the limitations of the base layer. Additionally, Bitcoin L2 enhances the functionality of Bitcoin by introducing smart contract functionality, which can power a robust decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.

Currently, Bitcoins can be transferred from the Bitcoin blockchain to smart contract platforms via bridged or wrapped BTC, which rely on third-party systems that are vulnerable to hacking and security breaches. Bitcoin L2 solutions aim to address these risks by providing a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin base layer, minimizing reliance on centralized intermediaries. While liquidity constraints and adoption barriers remain, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, giving BTC holders more confidence to actively use their Bitcoin in a decentralized ecosystem.

As shown, Bitcoin L2 solutions have experienced explosive growth in 2024, with total value locked (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, a 600% increase year-to-date, totaling approximately $3 billion. Currently, there are over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects in development, but only a few are likely to achieve widespread adoption in the long term.

This rapid growth reflects strong demand from BTC holders seeking yield and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin L2 mature into products available to end users, Bitcoin will also become an integral part of DeFi. Platforms such as Ika on Sui or the Near chain abstraction used by Infinex, for example, highlight how innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin’s interoperability with other ecosystems.

By enabling secure and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technologies will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value to an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem . As adoption scales, these technologies will bring huge opportunities for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.

7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees

Ethereum blobs released daily

Source: As of December 6, 2024 Dune @hildobby. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether Ethereum is getting enough value from its L2 network through Blob Space, a key component of its scaling roadmap. Blob Space acts as a specialized data layer where L2 submits a compressed history of its transactions to Ethereum, per-blob pays ETH fees. Although this architecture supports Ethereum's scalability, L2 currently sends minimal value to the mainnet, with a gross profit margin of approximately 90%. This has raised concerns that Ethereum’s economic value may shift too much toward L2, leaving the base layer underutilized.

Although Blob Space's growth has slowed recently, we expect its usage to expand dramatically by 2025, driven by three key factors:

Explosion L2 Adoption: Transaction volume on Ethereum L2 is growing at an annualized rate of over 300% as users migrate to low-cost, high-throughput environments in DeFi, gaming, and social applications. As more transactions flow back to Ethereum for final settlement, the proliferation of consumer-facing dApps on L2 will significantly increase demand for blob space.

Rollup optimization: Advances in Rollup technology, such as improving data compression and reducing the cost of publishing data to Blob Space, will encourage L2 to store more transaction data on Ethereum without sacrificing decentralization. Higher throughput can be achieved.

Introduction to high-fee use cases: The rise of enterprise-grade applications, zk-rollup-powered financial solutions, and tokenization of real-world assets will drive high-value transactions that prioritize security and immutability, increasing Willingness to pay for Blob Space.

By the end of 2025, we expect Blob Space expenses to exceed $1 billion, up from current levels of negligibility. This growth will solidify Ethereum’s position as the final settlement layer for decentralized applications while enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum’s Blob Space will expand the network and become a major source of revenue, balancing the economic relationship between mainnet and L2.

8. DeFi hits a record high, with DEX trading volume reaching US$4 trillion and TVL reaching US$200 billion

DeFi (decentralized finance) total locked value (TVL)

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Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

While decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes have hit all-time highs, both in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX), decentralized finance (DeFi) Total value locked (TVL) remains 24% below peak. We expect DEX trading volume to exceed $4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume, driven by AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps.

In addition, tokenized securitiesThe influx of high-value assets will fuel the growth of DeFi, providing new liquidity and broader utility. As a result, we expect DeFi TVL to rebound to over $200 billion by the end of the year, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.

9. NFT market recovers, with transaction volume reaching US$30 billion

The number of NFTs will decline in 2024; we expect a rebound in 2025

Source: As of : December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

The 2022-2023 bear market has dealt a heavy blow to the NFT industry, with trading volume plummeting 39% since 2023 and 84% since 2022. While the price of fungible tokens began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged behind, with weak prices and lackluster activity until November. Despite these challenges, some outstanding projects have weathered the downside by leveraging strong community ties to transcend speculative value.

Pudgy Penguins, for example, has successfully transformed into a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys has achieved cultural status in the realm of satirical internet culture. Likewise, the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to evolve into a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities and mainstream media.

As crypto wealth rebounds, we expect newly wealthy users to invest in NFTs, not just as speculative investments, but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance. Well-known collectibles like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) are likely to benefit from this shift, given their strong cultural cachet and relevance. While BAYC and CryptoPunks are still well below their historical trading peaks, down approximately 90% and 66% respectively in ETH terms, other projects such as Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have surpassed previous price highs.

Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, holding the majority of significant collectibles. By 2024, it will account for 71% of NFT transactions, and we expect this number to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in the market cap rankings, where Ethereum-based NFTs occupy all of the top 10 spots and 16 of the top 20 spots, highlighting the central role of blockchain in the NFT ecosystem.

While NFT trading volumes may not return to the exciting highs of previous cycles,But we believe that as the market shifts towards sustainability and cultural relevance rather than speculative hype, $30 billion in annual transaction volume is achievable, accounting for approximately 55% of the 2021 peak.

10. DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens

In 2024, Layer 1 tokens will perform 2 times better than leading dApps

Source: Market Vectors as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platform. The MVIALE index tracks infrastructure application tokens.

A consistent theme of the 2024 bull run is that L1 blockchain tokens will significantly outperform decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platforms is up 80% so far this year, while the MVIALE index of application tokens has lagged behind with a return of only 35% over the same period.

However, we expect this dynamic to change later in 2024 as a wave of new dApps launch, offering innovative and useful products that bring value to their respective tokens. Among the major thematic trends, we see AI as a prominent category of dApp innovation. Additionally, the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) project has huge potential to attract investor and user interest, contributing to a broader performance rebalancing between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.

This shift underscores the increasing importance of utility and product-market fit in determining the success of application tokens in the evolving crypto space.