Author: Matthew Sigel, Patrick Bush; Source: VanEck; Compiled by: BitpushNews

Note: VanEck May hold the following digital assets.

Before we jump into our 2025 predictions, let’s take a moment to review our 2024 predictions. Of these predictions, we had 8.5 predictions that were accurate, for an accuracy rate of 56.6%. Although not perfect, considering Bitcoin topped $100,000 and Ethereum topped $4,000, 2024 is still a year to remember, even if some predictions are inaccurate.

2024 Cryptocurrency Forecasts Review

Spot BTC ETP debuts – (1 point)

Bitcoin Halving Going Well – (1 Point)

Bitcoin Hits All-Time High in Q4 2024 – (1 Point)

Ethereum still ranks second after Bitcoin – (1 point)

L2 dominates Ethereum activity (but L2TVL is still lower than Ethereum Square) – (0.5 points)

The market value of stablecoins reaches a record high – (1 point)

Decentralized exchange spot trading volume accounts for record share – (1 point)

SOL performs better than ETH- (1 point)

DePIN network Growing adoption – (1 point)

Now, let’s get down to business: our cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.

Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2025

Cryptocurrency bull market reaches mid-term peak in Q1 and hits new highs in Q4

American PassEmbracing Bitcoin with Strategic Reserves and Increased Cryptocurrency Adoption

Tokenized securities worth over $50 billion

The daily settlement volume of stablecoins reaches 300 billion US dollars

The on-chain activity of AI agents exceeds 1 million agents

Bitcoin 2nd The total value locked (TVL) of the layer reaches 100,000 BTC

Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees

DeFi hits a record high, DEX trading volume reaches US$4 trillion, TVL reaches US$200 billion

NFT market recovers, trading volume reaches 300 Billion US dollars

The performance gap between DApp tokens and L1 tokens narrows

1. The cryptocurrency bull market reached its mid-term peak in the first quarter, and in the fourth New Quarterly Highs

We believe the cryptocurrency bull market will continue into 2025 and reach its first peak in Q1. At the peak of the cycle, we predict that Bitcoin (BTC) will be worth around $180,000, while Ethereum (ETH) will trade above $6,000. Other well-known projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), may exceed $500 and $10 respectively.

After the first peak, we expect BTC to see a 30% retracement, and as the market consolidates over the summer, altcoins will face sharp gains of up to 60% fell. However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with the major coin regaining momentum and regaining its previous all-time highs by the end of the year. To determine when the market is nearing a top, we are monitoring the following key signals:

Sustained high financing rates: When traders borrow funds to bet on rising BTC prices, Their willingness to pay financing rates in excess of 10% for three months or more indicates excessive speculation.

BTC Perps financing interest rate > 10% and lasting for several months will be a negative factorElements:

Source: Glass Node, as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

Excessive unrealized profits: If the proportion of BTC holders with large paper gains (profit to cost ratio of 70% or higher) stabilizes , indicating market optimism.

Market cap is overvalued relative to realized value: When the MVRV (market cap to realized value) score exceeds 5, it indicates that the BTC price is much higher than the average purchase Price, usually indicative of overheating conditions.

Bitcoin dominance declines: If Bitcoin's share of the overall cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it means speculation shifts to riskier altcoins Coin, this is typical late cycle behavior.

Mainstream speculation: A flood of text messages from crypto-illiterate friends asking about suspicious projects is a reliable sign of a speculative frenzy near the top.

Historically, these indicators have been reliable signals of market prosperity and will guide our outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle through 2025.

For example: "Top Signal" sent by a friend I met five years ago Short message.

2. The United States embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption

The election of Donald Trump has injected huge momentum into the cryptocurrency market, It appointed crypto-friendly leaders to key positions, including Vice President J.D. Vance, security adviser Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC) Chairman Jelena McWilliams and Secretary of Health and Human Services RFK Jr. Not only do these appointments signal the end of anti-crypto, such as the systematic crackdown on the banking of cryptocurrency companies and their founders,It also marks the beginning of a framework to position Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Cryptocurrency ETPs: Physical Creation, Staking, and New Spot Approvals

New SEC Leadership The Federal Reserve (or possibly the CFTC) will approve multiple new spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the United States, including the VanEck Solana product. Ethereum ETP functionality has been expanded to include staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs support physical creation/redemption. Repealing SEC Rule SAB 121, whether by the SEC or Congress, would pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.

Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption: Federal, State, and Mining Expansion

We predict that by In 2025, the commonwealth or at least one US state (possibly Pennsylvania, Florida or Texas) will establish a Bitcoin reserve. From a federal perspective, this is more likely to be accomplished through an executive order utilizing the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. At the same time, states may act independently and view Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or as a tool to attract crypto investment and innovation.

In terms of Bitcoin mining, as the adoption rate of gold bricks increases, the number of Bitcoins mined using resources is expected to reach double digits (currently seven indivual). Russia's expressed interest in settling international trade in cryptocurrencies has fueled the trend, underscoring Bitcoin's growing importance in global economic strategy.

Amount of Bitcoin mined using resources:

Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.

We expect this pro-Bitcoin stance to ripple throughout the U.S. crypto ecosystem. The U.S.-based share of global crypto developers will rise from 19% to 25% as regulatory clarity and incentives attract talent and companies back. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining in the U.S. will boom, driven by cheap energy and potentially favorable taxes to mine hashrate around the worldThe share of the rate will rise from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025. Together, these trends will solidify U.S. leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.

U.S. listed company’s Bitcoin hash rate share will reach 35%

Data source: Data provided by JPMorgan Chase and VanEck Research on December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Enterprise Bitcoin holdings expected to surge 43%

In terms of enterprise adoption, we Companies are expected to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed the 1.1 million BTC held by Satoshi Nakamoto within the next year. This means that corporate Bitcoin holdings will grow at a staggering 43% over the next year.

Gold and Bitcoin Ownership: Room for Growth:

< p style="text-align: left;">Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024. 3. Tokenized securities are worth over $50 billion

Onchain securities to grow 61% in 2024:

Source: RWA.xyz, Defillama, as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Crypto rails are expected to improve the financial system by increasing efficiency, decentralization and increasing transparency. We believe 2025 will be the year that tokenized securities take off. Currently, there are approximately $12 billion worth of tokenized securities on the blockchain, the majority of which ($9.5 billion) is FigureTokenized private credit securities listed on Provenance, a semi-permissioned blockchain.

In the future, we see great potential for tokenized securities to be issued on public chains. We believe there are many incentives for investors to push for tokenized equity or debt securities to be issued exclusively on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like DTCC to enable tokenized assets to be seamlessly converted between public chains and private closed infrastructure. This dynamic will set standards for enforcing AML/KYC for on-chain investors. As a wild card, we predict that Coinbase will take the unprecedented step of tokenizing COIN shares and deploying them on its BASE blockchain.

4. The daily settlement volume of stablecoins reaches 300 billion US dollars

The monthly stablecoin transfer volume (USD) in 2024 will increase by 180% year-on-year:

< p style="text-align:center">

Source: Artemis XYZ as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stablecoins will transcend their niche status in cryptocurrency trading and become a core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoins to settle $300 billion in transfers per day, equivalent to 5% of DTCC’s current trading volume, up from approximately $100 billion per day in November 2024. Their adoption by big tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine the economics of payments.

In addition to transactions, the remittance market will also show explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the United States and Mexico could grow fivefold, from $80 million to $400 million per month. Why? Speed, cost savings, and the growing trust of millions of people who no longer view stablecoins as experiments but as practical tools. For all the talk about blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan horse.

5. The on-chain activity of AI agents exceeds 1 million agents

The total revenue of AI agents in 5 weeks reached US$8.7 million:

Source: Du as of December 6, 2024ne @jdhpyer. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

We believe that one of the most compelling narratives that will translate into massive growth in 2025 is that of artificial intelligence agents attraction. AI Agents are specialized AI bots that guide users to achieve outcomes such as “maximize revenue” or “stimulate X/Twitter engagement.” The agent leverages its ability to autonomously change its strategy to optimize these outcomes. AI agents are typically fed data and trained to specialize in one area. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide the tools for anyone to create artificial intelligence agents to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals gives non-experts access to decentralized AI agent contributors such as spinners, dataset providers, and model developers so that non-technical people can create their own AI agents. The result will be an explosion in the number of agents that their creators can rent out to generate revenue.

The current focus of agent building is DeFi, but we believe that AI agents will transcend financial activities. Agents can serve as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive partners/assistants in consumer applications. Agents have become important X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, who have 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. As a result, we believe the huge potential for agents will result in more than 1 million new agents by 2025.

6. The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches 100,000 BTC

The total locked amount of Bitcoin L2 reaches 30,000 BTC, so far in 2024 600% growth:

Source: As of December 6, 2024 Defillama of the day. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

We are closely watching the emergence of Bitcoin layer 2 (L2) blockchains, which have huge potential to transform the Bitcoin ecosystem. Scaling Bitcoin enables these L2 solutions to achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, thereby addressing the limitations of the base layer. In addition, Bitcoin L2 enhances the functionality of Bitcoin by introducing smart contract functionality, which can provide powerful decentralized financial services built around Bitcoin.DeFi ecosystem provides support.

Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred from the Bitcoin blockchain to smart contract platforms via bridged or wrapped BTC, which rely on being vulnerable to hacking and security Vulnerable third-party systems. Bitcoin L2 solutions aim to address these risks by providing a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin base layer, minimizing reliance on centralized intermediaries. While liquidity constraints and adoption barriers remain, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, giving BTC holders more confidence to actively use their Bitcoin in a decentralized ecosystem.

As shown, Bitcoin L2 solutions have experienced explosive growth in 2024, with total value locked (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, year-to-date growth 600%, totaling approximately $3 billion. Currently, there are over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects in development, but only a few are likely to achieve widespread adoption in the long term.

This rapid growth reflects strong demand from BTC holders seeking yield and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin L2 mature into products available to end users, Bitcoin will also become an integral part of DeFi. For example, platforms such as Ika on Sui or the Near chain abstraction used by Infinex highlight how innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin’s interoperability with other ecosystems.

Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technology will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value by enabling safe and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions Be an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem. As adoption scales, these technologies will bring huge opportunities for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.

7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees

Source: As of 2024 Dune on December 6 @hildobby. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether Ethereum is getting enough value from its layer 2 (L2) network through Blob Space, its expansion route Picture of the relationshipkey component. Blob Space acts as a dedicated data layer where L2 commits a compressed history of its transactions to Ethereum and pays ETH fees per blob. Although this architecture supports Ethereum's scalability, L2 currently sends minimal value to the mainnet, with a gross profit margin of approximately 90%. This has raised concerns that Ethereum’s economic value may shift too much toward L2, leaving the base layer underutilized.

Although Blob Space's growth has slowed recently, we expect its usage to expand dramatically by 2025, driven by three key factors :

Explosive L2 adoption: Transactions on Ethereum L2 as users migrate to low-cost, high-throughput environments in DeFi, gaming and social applications Volume is growing at an annual rate of over 300%. As more transactions flow back to Ethereum for final settlement, the proliferation of consumer-facing dApps on L2 will significantly increase demand for blob space.

Rollup optimization: Advances in Rollup technology, such as improved data compression and lower costs of publishing data to Blob Space, will encourage L2 to store more on Ethereum Transaction data, enabling higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.

Introduction to high-fee use cases: The rise of enterprise-grade applications, zk-rollup-powered financial solutions, and tokenized real-world assets will drive high-value transactions , prioritizing security and immutability, increasing willingness to pay for Blob Space.

By the end of 2025, we expect Blob Space expenses to exceed $1 billion, up from current levels of negligibility. This growth will solidify Ethereum’s position as the final settlement layer for decentralized applications while enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum’s Blob Space will expand the network and become a major source of revenue, balancing the economic relationship between mainnet and L2.

8. DeFi hits a record high, DEX trading volume reaches US$4 trillion, TVL reaches US$200 billion

Source: Defillama. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Despite the fact that decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume has hit an all-time high, both in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX) , but the total value locked (TVL) of decentralized finance (DeFi) is still 24% below its peak. We predict that DEX trading volume will exceed $4 trillion by 2025, driven by AI-related tokens and new consumer-oriented dApps, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume.

Additionally, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will fuel the growth of DeFi, providing new liquidity and broader utility. As a result, we expect DeFi TVL to rebound to over $200 billion by the end of the year, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.

9. NFT market recovers, transaction volume reaches US$30 billion

Source: As of: December 6, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned in this article.

The bear market of 2022-2023 has dealt a heavy blow to the NFT industry, with trading volume plummeting 39% since 2023 and 84% since 2022. %. While the price of fungible tokens began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged behind, with weak prices and lackluster activity until November. Despite these challenges, some outstanding projects have weathered the downside by leveraging strong community ties to transcend speculative value.

For example, Pudgy Penguins has successfully transformed into a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys has achieved cultural status in the realm of satirical internet culture. Likewise, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to evolve into a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities and mainstream media.

As crypto wealth rebounds, we expect newly wealthy users to invest in NFTs, not just as speculative investments, but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance assets. Given CryptoPunks and BoredWell-established collections such as the Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), with their strong cultural cachet and relevance, are likely to benefit from this shift. While BAYC and CryptoPunks are still well below their historical trading peaks, down approximately 90% and 66% respectively in ETH terms, other projects such as Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have surpassed previous price highs.

Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, hosting the most significant collectibles. By 2024, it will account for 71% of NFT transactions, and we expect this number to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in the market cap rankings, where Ethereum-based NFTs occupy all of the top 10 spots and 16 of the top 20 spots, highlighting the central role of blockchain in the NFT ecosystem.

While NFT trading volumes may not return to the excitement highs of previous cycles, we believe that as the market shifts towards sustainability and cultural relevance Rather than speculative hype, an annual transaction volume of US$30 billion is achievable, accounting for approximately 55% of the 2021 peak.

10. DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens

Source: As of Market Vectors on December 8, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platform. The MVIALE index tracks infrastructure application tokens.

A consistent theme of the 2024 bull run is that layer one (L1) blockchain tokens will significantly outperform decentralized application (dApp) tokens currency. For example, the MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platforms is up 80% so far this year, while the MVIALE index of application tokens has lagged behind with a return of only 35% over the same period.

However, we expect this dynamic to change later in 2024, as a wave of new dApps are launched, offering innovative and practical products, thereby bringing value to their respective tokens. Among the major thematic trends, we see artificial intelligence (AI) as a prominent category for dApp innovation. Additionally, the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) project has huge potential to attract investor and user interest, helpingTo enable a broader performance rebalancing between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.

This shift underscores the increasing importance of utility and product-market fit to the success of application tokens in the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape.