Author: Haotian

My last article shared AI narratives such as AI DePIN, AI MEME, and AI Agent The logical relationship between them, but the question arises when mining the potential Alpha of AI, is it with the AI ​​MEME that may have a strong wealth effect but frequently changes from the cabal? Is it a very early agreement framework to build infra? Or choose some cool standalone AI with specific application scenarios? To be honest, I have been confused for a long time. Here are just some brief opinions:

1) There is no doubt that the big trend is that AI Agent is neither an "asset" nor an "asset". It is not an "application", but a new paradigm of large-scale blockchain ecological "narrative".

In other words, the arrival of AI Agent is just like the blockchain ushering in a DeFi Summer in 2020, which will revolve around the issuance, custody, and trading of AI Agent's Tokens. ; Infrastructure construction, framework, standards, communication, stacking, SaaS packaging; Application development, operation, aggregation, iteration, implementation, etc. create a huge new "bubble" narrative cycle of Build+Speculation.

DeFi promoted the glory of the last bull market, and the triumvirate of stablecoins + lending + DeX derivatives stimulated much market vitality. According to incomplete statistics, the total lock-up value of multi-chain DeFI is 134.6 billion, the number of stablecoins in circulation has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, the monthly trading volume of DEX has reached 372.3 billion US dollars, and the lending volume is nearly 20 billion US dollars, etc., the market of the entire DeFi industry The scale and ecological importance are both in these data, which have grown astonishingly and are still being refreshed. This does not include broader data such as various chains and applications generated by DeFi, such as MCAP\FDV.

In my opinion, AI Agent will also create a new round of narrative miracles that are the same or even surpass the DeFi narrative. Is there an imagination space of 200B or 500B? Don’t always think about the new DeFi Summer 2.0. Please keep up with the current AI Agent Summer narrative trend and don’t fall behind.

2) Based on this logic, let’s look at the current “chaos” in the AI ​​Agent market:

1) Community wars and wars among AI MEMEs such as $GOAT, $FARTCOIN, $ACT, etc. The battle for leadership; 2) The battle for AI Agent framework standards such as $VIRTUAL and $AI16Z; 3) The battle for derivative infra such as asset issuance and circulation such as $VVAIFU and $GRIFFAIN; 4) $AIXBT and $AVA , $BULLY and other single AI Agent application disputes, etc.

You will find that it is still too early. The various lending platforms, derivatives, machine gun pools, governance tokens, etc. that appear on DeFi are at least Ethereum. Chains such as Fangfang provide basic execution frameworks and standards, but the AI ​​Agent ecosystem does not even have exclusive infra conditions. From the perspective of ecological plasticity, the industry narrative opportunities brought by AI Agent are much greater than those of DeFi;

In other words, these chaos are not chaotic. If you are optimistic about the development of AI Agent narrative, in various sector directions, generally all assets with a certain market value and corresponding user base will be affected before the huge AI Agent narrative breaks out. It is a high-quality asset. The market capitalization of YFI, CRV, UNI, DYDX and other assets in the past has reached tens of billions, so you should not panic.

Of course, having confidence does not mean that you can mess around. Don’t forget that besides the eldest uncle, there are also pseudo-value assets like the second uncle, and such assets will always be Quietly attacking your wallet with a gesture that is more tempting in the short term but toxic in the long term.

3) Because it is indeed the early stage of the narrative, some AI MEMEs who clearly know that there is a conspiracy group operating have no reason to persuade everyone not to participate. After all, no one knows a person. What kind of wealth effect can the early track produce, and mainly some framework standards that seem more valuable and have been implemented may also face the possibility of being overtaken by competing products at any time.

In short, it is difficult to give a clear logic for Alpha mining. I only share my personal investment research logic for reference:

1. AI MEME, only consider $GOAT, a "leading coin" with the nature of the originator of narratives. ”, there is no logic, if I have to say one thing, it is like there was a consensus currency like Bitcoin before smart contracts like Ethereum were born.Technology delivers coins the same.

Although the MEME in the early stage of the track is mainly speculative, its role in educating the market and cultivating user awareness cannot be ignored, just like DOGE did for The popularity of cryptocurrencies is the same.

2. AI Agent infra is very important and underestimated in the long run, such as $ELIZA, an early framework with rich Github open source libraries and a particularly wide range of applications. , although it is indeed very early and may be sucked away by other stronger framework standards at any time, its absolute advantages of open source sharing and first-mover advantages are barriers. If there is a better framework than it, there is a high probability that it will be on the top of It may affect its growth height, but it will certainly not eliminate it.

If we regard ELIZA as the EVM in the AI ​​Agent era, new frameworks such as EVM++ and EVM Compatible will inevitably come out to complement it;

3. AI Agent asset issuance, custody, and trading are currently still at the MEME-based asset issuance narrative level. It is necessary to lock in the value of the platform and not be confused by the "junk assets" on the platform.

The logic is very simple. AI Agent is essentially a process of realizing the value of an AI scenario based on the Crypto incentive mechanism. Early infra, applications, protocol frameworks, etc. are not yet mature. , how could there be so many AIXBT-level super applications born? What does the convenience of issuing coins bring? Do you understand? In the end, it is just a bubble trap that creates popularity for asset issuance platforms such as VIRTUAL and VVAIFU.

So don’t chase AI Agent super applications too much unless there is an absolute information gap. When you rush in when you see the market value, the price/performance ratio will not be high, but locking infra, an innovation platform, is different;

4. Infra of AI Agent There is still a large gap in construction. For example, early frameworks such as ELIZA only solved the problems of LLM large models and AI Agent dialogue mechanisms, and were applied to application scenarios such as Twitter and Discord. However, it was more about the matching of web2 information. When will there be one? It is an E-system that can connect the ELIZA framework and web3 transaction scenarios based on the public chain paradigm.The release of the LIZA++ version is worth looking forward to;

For another example, although AI Agent asset issuance platforms such as Virtual and VVAIFU can quickly issue assets, they will need to decentralize asset custody in the future. , AMM-style transactions and other directions are still lacking. When will the previously hotly discussed private key management method of AI Agent+TEE mature? Can the asset issuance platform extend new gameplay in trading? Are there more interesting trading gameplay and incentive models?

Also, can there be some chain that builds interaction standards for AI Agents to become Cosmos in the AI ​​Agent era and provide standard interoperability capabilities? Or some chains that build permanent Memory modular storage for AI Agents and build necessary DA capabilities for AI Agents? There are also some AI Agent visualization tools, execution engines, modular combination packaging services, etc.

With these technologies and market-driven supporting infra coming out, will you still be anxious about a bunch of incomprehensible MEMEs?

Above.

As for the various layer1, high-performance chain, cross-chain infra, chain abstraction, DA combination chain, layer2, Restaking, etc. that were built based on the smart contract paradigm in the past, they have been improved. Where is the solution for China’s infrastructure? In addition to the original infra landing application PMF delivery implementation issues, a breaking point is the new concept of "AI Agent narrative".

So, which chain can jump out to provide some communication protocols, DA, application development and other service capabilities for AI Agents is worthy of attention. Of course, there must be chains that are purely based on concepts, but they are better than chains that rest on their laurels.

No matter what, please lock in the AI ​​Agent track and welcome the arrival of this epic bull market.